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$USDC Core Conclusion: Investing 60,000-70,000 USD to buy Bitcoin at a large scale is illogical; it essentially involves gambling on the bottom while catching a falling knife, which goes against investment rationality and risk control common sense. Below is a clear breakdown and feasible plan 👇

1. Core Contradiction: Three Major Logical Mismatches in Bottom Fishing

1. The bottom is unpredictable and lacks fundamental support: Low prices are often a continuation of a decline, as history has repeatedly proven that after a 50% drop, prices can still fall another 50%; currently, the confrontation between the US and Iran, along with the sell-off of tech stocks, poses risks to risk assets, making it easier to form a cycle of "decline—liquidation—further decline" under panic; bottom fishing without fundamental support is just catching a falling knife.

2. Violating Trend Confirmation and Staggered Investment Principles: Professional investors only confirm trends and do not predict bottoms; Buffett's "greed" is always accompanied by staggered investments and risk reserves; entering the market on a large scale at 60,000-70,000 USD is a gambler's mentality, not investment rationality.

3. Lack of Valuation Anchoring, Overlooking Liquidity and Time Costs: Bottom fishing without a true value anchor is self-comforting under anchoring effects; in a panic, funds accelerate losses, and prolonged waiting devours capital efficiency.

2. Correct Bottom Fishing: Three Major Principles + Practical Strategies

• Principles: ① Do not guess the bottom, only confirm trends (consecutive daily positive lines, stabilizing at key positions); ② Staggered investments, reserve bullets (avoid full positions); ③ Anchor valuations and safety margins (e.g., ahr999 ≤ 0.45, institutional cost lines, etc.).

• Practical Operation (Market in February 2026):

1. Observe First: 60,000-70,000 USD is not a safety margin; wait for daily stabilization, ETF turning to net buying, on-chain whales accumulating signals, etc.

2. Gradual Positioning: Trial position (total capital 10%-15%, 55,000-60,000 USD + ahr999 ≤ 0.45) → Add position (cumulative ≤ 40%, stabilize at 55,000 + reversal signal) → Increase position (≤ 80%, reclaim 65,000 + hash rate recovery).

3. Ironclad Risk Control: Single risk ≤ 1%-2%, strict stop-loss; stay away from leverage (10x leverage with a 10% fluctuation means zero out). #何时抄底？ #BTC何时反弹？ #黄金白银反弹