$SOL after experiencing a significant decline, is currently in a weak consolidation around 80, and is in a technical rebound phase within a downtrend.
🎯 Direction: No Position
Market Analysis: The price (80.08) is below EMA20 (82.23) and EMA50 (87.52), indicating an overall bearish trend. Although there is a slight rebound at the 4H level, the last candlestick closed at 80.04, showing weak buying strength.
Logic Hard Core: The current rebound lacks key supporting elements. 1. The funding rate (-0.0167%) is negative, and the open interest (OI) trend is stable, suggesting a possibility of a short squeeze; however, the price has not effectively broken above EMA20, and the RSI (37.95) remains in a weak area, not a strong bullish signal. 2. Deep imbalance (14.73%) and the buy/sell ratio (1.35) show that there are buy orders accumulating below, but mainly concentrated at the 80 round number, with support strength yet to be tested.
Trading Plan: Currently in a bearish continuation pattern, going long lacks trend and momentum confirmation, while going short faces the risk of a short squeeze under negative rates. The best strategy is to remain in no position and wait. If the price can break through and stabilize above EMA20 (82.3), it can be seen as a short-term trend reversal signal. If it breaks below 79.5 (recent consolidation low), then the bearish continuation is established, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be sought.
Trade here 👇$SOL
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