The Cardano price rose by about 3% in the last 24 hours and is currently trading around $0.26. This stands out because the broader cryptocurrency market remains largely flat. On the chart, ADA is beginning to form a familiar recovery pattern that previously led to increases. However, on-chain and derivative data show that this setup may have little strong support.

This creates a clear distinction between improving technical signals and weak investor conviction.

Rebound pattern is forming again: just like in December

Since the beginning of December, Cardano has been building on a familiar pattern. Between December 1 and February 11, ADA made lower lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made higher lows. The RSI measures momentum by tracking the strength of buyers and sellers. If the price declines while the RSI improves, it indicates diminishing selling pressure.

This is called a bullish divergence. This pattern often appears at short-term lows.

The same pattern occurred between December 1 and December 31, 2025. At that time, ADA recorded lower lows, while the RSI showed higher lows, and then the price recovered quickly. That recovery led to an increase of about 32% before sellers came back.

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Now the structure looks similar again. On paper, this indicates that downward momentum is decreasing.

But technical patterns only work if large parties support them. This time, that support is lacking.

Whales and derivatives do not support this reversal attempt.

The biggest difference between December and now is the behavior of whales. In December, large Cardano holders were actively accumulating. Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA increased their supply from about 13.15 billion to nearly 13.5 billion. This continued buying helped the recovery.

Now the opposite is happening. Since mid-January, these whales have been reducing their positions. On January 14, they held about 13.67 billion ADA together. That number has now dropped to nearly 13.3 billion. The trend shifted from accumulation to distribution.

Instead of preparing for a rise, large holders are slowly stepping out. That weakens the reversal structure.

Derivatives data shows the same picture. Open interest, the total value of all active futures positions, is now much lower than at the beginning of January when the Cardano price peaked. On January 5, open interest peaked around $884 million. Now it has dropped to about $407 million, a decline of more than 50%.

This is important because strong rises usually require participation from leverage traders. If open interest rises, it means traders are putting capital on direction. If it drops, momentum often fades quickly. The funding rates are also only slightly positive. This shows that traders are not massively betting on a rise. Additionally, there is not enough short-leverage to cause a short squeeze.

In short: whales do not buy and derivatives traders are not really participating. The recovery is now mainly dependent on spot buyers.

Spot flows are negative and keep pressure on the Cardano price.

Spot market data shows why confidence remains weak.

An important metric is Exchange Netflow. This measures whether coins are going to an exchange or leaving it. In a negative netflow, coins are leaving exchanges, which usually indicates accumulation. If the netflow turns positive, more selling pressure emerges. Between February 7 and 11, Cardano saw slight outflows. This indicated some initial buying interest.

But on February 12 (after the divergence appeared on the chart), the net flow turned positive again, with an influx of nearly $1.16 million. This means traders are sending ADA back to exchanges to sell. This shift is important.

This shows that even short-term buyers are not holding on. Instead of holding during the process, they quickly step out again. If spot selling occurs so early, recoveries usually struggle. Because whales are absent, derivatives are weak, and spot inflows are negative, confidence remains low.

From the price perspective, $0.28 is now the first important level. A clear breakout above $0.28 would show that buyers are finally taking control. If that happens, ADA may try to rise to $0.32 and possibly $0.35 (an increase of more than 30%), similar to the surge in December.

However, without stronger support, that scenario remains unlikely.

At the bottom, $0.24 is the first important support level. A prolonged drop below this point opens the door to $0.22. If $0.22 does not hold, the entire recovery structure becomes invalid. At this moment, Cardano is stuck between technically better momentum and weaker investor confidence.