The price of Cardano has increased by approximately 3% in the last 24 hours, trading near the level of 0.26 USD as this article is being written. This is notable because the overall crypto market remains largely stagnant. On the ADA chart, it is beginning to form a similar rebound structure that has previously led to significant increases. However, on-chain data and derivative data suggest that this time the momentum may not be very strong.
There is a clear conflict between improving technical signals and the still weak investor sentiment.
The recovery pattern is starting to form again, similar to December.
Since the beginning of December, Cardano has formed a familiar structure. Between December 1 and February 11, ADA made new lows while the Relative Strength Index or RSI made higher lows. RSI is used to measure momentum by tracking the strength of buying and selling pressure. Thus, when the price weakens but RSI improves, it indicates that selling pressure is starting to ease.
This type of event is called bullish divergence and typically occurs near short-term lows.
The same pattern occurred between December 1 and December 31, 2025. At that time, ADA made new lows while RSI made higher lows, and subsequently, the price quickly recovered. That rebound sent Cardano up about 32% before selling pressure returned.
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Currently, the structure on the chart looks familiar again. On paper, this indicates that the downward momentum is slowing down.
But the technical pattern will only work if major players support it. However, this time that support is lacking.
Whales and derivatives do not support this reversal effort
The significant difference between December and now is the behavior of whales. In December, major Cardano holders actively accumulated coins, with wallets holding ADA between 10 million and 100 million coins increasing their holdings from about 13.15 billion dollars to nearly 13.5 billion dollars. This continued buying helped drive the price up.
However, this time the opposite has occurred. Since mid-January, these same whales have reduced their holdings. On January 14, they still held ADA worth about 13.67 billion dollars, but now it has decreased to around 13.3 billion dollars. The overall trend has thus shifted from accumulation to selling.
Instead of preparing for an upward movement, major investors are gradually exiting, weakening the entire reversal structure.
Derivative data also shows a similar picture, with Open interest volume, which measures the total value of open futures positions, being lower than the early January period, which was when Cardano's price peaked last. On January 5, Open interest rose to nearly 884 million USD and is currently around 407 million USD, down more than 50%.
This point is significant because a strong upward adjustment often requires leveraged trading. When Open interest increases, it means traders are putting money to speculate on price direction more. If it decreases, momentum usually fades quickly. The funding rate is still slightly positive, indicating that traders are not seriously betting on an upward trend and there is not enough short-side leverage to trigger a short squeeze.
Simply put, whales are not buying, and derivative traders are not putting in money, resulting in the rebound relying solely on buyers in the spot market.
The spot trading flow is negative, continuously pressuring Cardano's price.
Spot market data indicates that sentiment remains weak.
One of the key indicators is Exchange Netflow, which tracks the movement of coins into and out of exchanges. If the netflow is negative, it indicates coins are leaving the exchange, suggesting accumulation. However, if the netflow becomes positive, it means selling pressure is increasing. Between February 7 and February 11, Cardano had a slight outflow, indicating early buying interest.
But on February 12 (after a divergence signal appeared on the chart), the netflow turned positive again, with inflows nearing 1.16 million USD, indicating that traders have begun moving ADA back to exchanges for sale. This event is very significant.
This shows that even short-term buyers lack commitment. Instead of holding through setup signals, they are rapidly selling off. When selling occurs in the spot market in this early fashion, it often makes recovery difficult, especially when whales are absent, derivatives are weak, and spot flow turns negative. Sentiment thus remains low.
From a price perspective, the level of 0.28 USD now becomes a key resistance level. If the price decisively breaks above 0.28 USD, it will reflect that buyers are starting to take control of the market. If that's the case, ADA may attempt to move up to 0.32 USD and possibly reach 0.35 USD (representing an increase of more than 30%), similar to the recovery in December.
Nevertheless, without stronger support, this event remains difficult.
While the level below 0.24 USD is the first support position, if the price consistently breaks below this level, it opens the possibility to drop to 0.22 USD. If 0.22 USD cannot hold, the entire rebound structure will be completely nullified. Thus, Cardano is currently caught between improving technical momentum and weakening investor sentiment.
