Markets rarely reward certainty. They reward structure.
On February 03, one year ago, the first Elliott Wave forecast on RUNE was published. It was not a prediction of exact prices or exact dates. It was a structural roadmap. Today, exactly one year later, the chart continues to respect that broader framework, reinforcing a critical truth about markets: while price cannot be forecast with absolute precision, it can often be anticipated through structure.
The weekly chart of RUNE reflects the completion of a macro five wave impulsive advance, followed by a complex corrective formation labeled W X Y. According to Elliott Wave principles, once an impulse concludes, a correction is not optional. It is structural. The decline that followed the peak was not random volatility, but the unfolding of that corrective phase.
The recent breakdown from the highlighted February 03 candle marks the continuation of the next leg within this broader correction. Short term price action is developing in a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting that downside pressure remains active. Fibonacci retracement analysis aligns with this view. The 0.618 retracement level presents an intermediate objective where temporary stabilization may occur. However, the deeper 0.786 retracement zone represents the more proportionate target for a mature wave Y completion, offering structural symmetry within the broader cycle.
It is essential to emphasize that Elliott Wave analysis does not promise certainty. Instead, it provides probability based pathways. It organizes uncertainty into identifiable phases of expansion and contraction, optimism and pessimism. One year after the initial forecast, the broader corrective thesis remains structurally intact, demonstrating how wave analysis offers a roadmap that spans from short term fluctuations to long term cycle expectations.
Markets cannot be predicted with perfection. But they can be mapped with discipline. Elliott Wave theory does not eliminate risk. It defines it.
