February 12, 2026


1. Market Snapshot: The rebound turned into a bubble, and the whole market plummeted again


On February 12, the cryptocurrency market plummeted on Monday, completely debunking last Friday's nearly 20% rebound from $60,000. Bitcoin fell to around $66,000 to $68,000, with a 24-hour decline exceeding 4%; Ethereum dropped below the psychological barrier of $2,000 to $1,970 (-5.5%); Solana fell below $80 to about $80.25, hitting a two-year low; XRP reported at $1.40 (-3.5%). Bloomberg reported today that the cryptocurrency market has evaporated over $2 trillion since its peak in October last year, with BTC down 47% from recent highs, and altcoins performing extremely poorly.


Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated: “This is not a 'bull market correction' or a 'buying opportunity'; this is a real, genuine crypto winter of 2022 levels.”


2. (Dead Cat Bounce) Confirmation: Collapse from 72,000 to 66,000 in three days


Last Thursday, BTC plunged to $60,000, then on Friday rebounded nearly 20% to $72,000, briefly reigniting hopes of a bottom. However, CoinDesk analysts point out that this is a textbook 'dead cat bounce'—a technical rebound after a sharp decline, attracting bottom-fishing funds before quickly fading. This Wednesday, Bitcoin fell back below $66,000, having retraced over 8% from its previous peak, marking a complete failure.


The open interest of perpetual contracts surged and then plummeted by 51% since last October, dropping from $19 billion to about $16 billion, as trader confidence and leverage experienced a massive retreat. Kaiko data shows that the monthly trading volume of major exchanges has sharply fallen from around $1 trillion to $700 billion, a drop of 30%. The liquidity is so thin that any selling pressure will be magnified.


3. Retail investor exodus: Koreans abandon crypto for stocks, Robinhood's crypto revenue plummets


The most fundamental change in this round of collapse is the structural analysis of retail investors. Bloomberg reports that Korean investors are massively selling off cryptocurrencies to invest in the stock market, with the Kospi index's monthly trading volume plummeting by 221% year-on-year, while trading volume on Korean crypto exchanges has dropped by 65% year-on-year. Analysts assert: “This is a major cleansing; retail investors are exhausted.”


The U.S. market is equally bleak. Robinhood's fourth-quarter crypto trading revenue surged, yet its stock price plummeted by 12.5% in a single day. Investing.com’s in-depth analysis reveals three key numbers regarding capital outflow: Coinbase has been negative for 21 consecutive days (lowest at -167.8), the market value of stablecoins has shrunk by $14 billion since December, and the annualized return on basis trading has dropped from 17% to below 5%. Funds are not rotating within the crypto ecosystem but are completely exiting.


4. Macro dilemma: Hopeless rate cuts and the coffin of the 'digital gold' narrative


After Kevin Walsh was appointed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, market expectations for interest rate cuts have remained unchanged, which is a key factor suppressing all risk assets. Canary Capital's CEO expects BTC to fall to $50,000 this summer, while Stifel's chief strategist has set a bottom target of $38,000, and Zacks has warned of $40,000.


The narrative of the 'digital gold haven' is facing a trust crisis in the Middle East. Over the past 12 months, BTC has dropped by 28%, while gold has risen by 72%—the gap in dual performance has completely shattered Bitcoin's positioning as a safe-haven asset. CNN reports that BTC has continued to decline in an environment traditionally favorable for safe-haven assets, such as geopolitical tensions and trade war threats, proving that it remains fundamentally a risk asset rather than a safe haven.


5. Not the bottom: Structural support still exists


Despite the dismal short-term outlook, Bernstein released a research report in early February, characterizing the recent downturn as a 'short-term crypto bear market cycle'. The recent fluctuations have bottomed out and rebounded, with the bottom area around $60,000—near the current price level. The spot BTC ETF still holds about $97 billion in assets under management, although it has broken through $6.18 billion, it retains over 93% of its assets. A Coinbase institutional survey shows that 62% of institutions have maintained or increased their net long positions since last October.


The key difference is that, unlike the systemic collapse triggered by FTX and Terra/Luna in 2022, this round of decline is almost entirely driven by macro factors. Wintermute's strategy notes: “This is a macro deleveraging based on positions, risk preferences, and narratives, rather than a structural collapse within the crypto system.”


6. Market outlook


Multiple research departments predict that the market will experience a 3 to 6 month period of turbulence and bottoming, with the BTC bottom range between $56,000 and $65,000, followed by a gradual easing in the second half of 2026 as monetary policy may loosen. The historical pattern of the four-year halving cycle will come into play—significant price increases typically occur 12 to 18 months after the halving in April 2024.


However, in the short term, investors need to prepare for more volatility psychologically. With retail investors exiting, liquidity drying up, and the bankruptcy liquidation of 'digital gold', maintaining position discipline is more important than predicting the bottom.#比特币挖矿难度下降 $BTC