$ETH Market Analysis 2026.02.12
On January 14th, I clearly indicated a bearish outlook, followed by a 48%+ drop in ETH.
As shown in Figure 1, the tweet on February 6 explicitly stated that the decline has come to a halt, and at the very least, there will be a significant rebound, followed by a 23%+ increase in ETH.
Has the rebound ended now? Is ETH going up or down next?
As shown in Figure 2, I believe that the black line, which is 1748-2152, is just the first segment of the increase, and we are currently experiencing a correction related to the first segment rather than a new decline. At least for now, there are no signs of a downward trend forming. The correction in ETH has entered its final phase, and there are two possibilities moving forward:
Red: ETH will not effectively break below the 1900 line in the near future but will instead form a converging pattern to complete the adjustment. This way, it might end the adjustment and start rising before next week.
Blue: ETH will drop to a lower point below 1900 and, after gaining support in the indicated blue area, will end the adjustment and start rising.
Both paths lead to the same endpoint: finding the end of the adjustment and starting the next wave of increase, with the only difference being the magnitude of the correction and the timing of the end.
A friend asked, “Is it certain that it won’t break below 1748?” I cannot answer such questions because trading is a game of probabilities. My analysis is merely my subjective judgment based on the market situation. Until I see a downward trend forming, I believe that the rebound starting from 1748 has not yet ended, and I formulate my trading strategy based on this view, that’s all.
