The price of Cardano has increased by about 3% over the past 24 hours and is trading around $0.26 at the time of reporting. This stands out as the overall cryptocurrency market is mostly showing a sideways trend. In the chart, ADA has begun to form a familiar bounce structure that has previously led rallies. However, on-chain and derivative data indicate a lack of strong support for this upward signal.

This creates a clear conflict between the improvement of technical signals and the weakening of investor confidence.

Reappearance of a rebound pattern similar to December

Cardano has been forming a familiar structure since early December. From December 1 to February 11, ADA price formed lower lows while the relative strength index (RSI) recorded higher lows. The RSI tracks the strength of buying and selling to measure momentum. If the price is weak but the RSI improves, it means that selling pressure has weakened.

This phenomenon is called bullish divergence. It often appears near short-term lows.

The same pattern appeared from December 1 to December 31, 2025. At that time, ADA made lower lows while the RSI made higher lows, and soon after, the price rebounded. That rebound raised Cardano by about 32%, after which selling pressure reappeared.

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A similar structure is still visible now. Theoretically, it is a signal that downward momentum is easing.

However, technical patterns only work when there is backing from large participants. This time, that support is lacking.

Whales and derivatives do not support attempts at reversal

The biggest difference between December and now is the behavior of whales (large investors). In December, large Cardano holders actively started buying. The total holdings of wallets holding 10 million to 1 billion ADA increased from about 13.15 billion to nearly 13.5 billion. This steady buying pressure facilitated the rebound.

This time, the situation is reversed. Since mid-January, the same whales have been reducing their positions. On January 14, they held about 13.67 billion ADA. Now, it has decreased to around 13.3 billion. Overall, it has shifted from accumulation to distribution.

Rather than preparing for a rise, large investors are slowly exiting the market. This weakens the overall reversal structure.

Derivative data shows the same signals. Open interest represents the total value of currently active futures positions. It has significantly decreased from when Cardano last peaked in early January. On January 5, the open interest reached $884 million. It is now around $407 million, a decrease of over 50%.

This indicator is important because a strong rally requires leveraged participation. An increase in open interest means that traders are putting money into directional positions. A decrease indicates that market momentum can easily disappear. The funding rate is also recording a weak positive value. Traders are not making strong bets on the upside, and the leverage of short positions is not sufficient, so the possibility of a short squeeze is low.

In other words, whales are not buying, and derivative traders are not injecting funds. As a result, the rebound relies solely on spot buyers.

Decrease in spot inflows... pressure on Cardano price

Spot market data explains why investor sentiment is weak.

One of the key indicators is Exchange Netflow. This tracks whether coins are flowing into or out of exchanges. If the netflow is negative, it means coins are leaving exchanges, which is generally a cumulative signal. When netflow turns positive, it indicates that selling pressure is increasing. From February 7 to 11, Cardano saw a slight outflow from exchanges, indicating that there was some initial buying pressure.

However, on February 12 (after a divergence signal appeared on the chart), the net inflow switched back to positive, with about $1.16 million entering. This indicates that traders have started moving ADA to exchanges for selling. This change is significant.

This shows that even short-term buyers are not showing confidence. They are more likely to sell quickly rather than maintain short-term strategies. If spot selling starts again early, the rebound will struggle to gain strength. With whales absent, the derivatives market is also bearish, and spot flow has turned to a negative trend, indicating a continued lack of confidence.

From a price perspective, $0.28 is currently the most important first level. If it definitively breaks through $0.28, it will show that buying pressure has finally taken control. In this case, ADA could attempt to rise to $0.32 and even $0.35 (a rise of over 30%), which is similar to the December rebound range.

However, without stronger support, this scenario is unlikely to materialize.

In a downtrend, $0.24 is the first major support level. If this range of decline continues, it will expose $0.22. If it fails to maintain even $0.22, the entire rebound structure will be neutralized. Currently, Cardano is caught between improving technical momentum and weakening investor sentiment.