$BTC Update
So BTC is sitting around $68k after getting absolutely destroyed from that $126k top in October. That's a brutal 47% haircut and people are losing their minds.
Fear & Greed Index just hit 5. Not 15. Not 10. FIVE. That's the lowest reading ever recorded. Lower than COVID crash. Lower than FTX blowing up. Lower than the 2018 bear market bottom. We're talking full-blown capitulation mode where everyone thinks crypto is dead again.
What the chart's telling us:
We tested $60k, bounced, tried to reclaim $70k, got rejected, and now we're battling around $67k. This range is make or break. Hold here and build higher lows? We're probably bottoming. Break down? We're likely seeing $60k again, maybe even $50-55k if things get really ugly.
The $60-67k zone is basically the line in the sand right now.
History doesn't repeat but it rhymes, right? Every single time this index has gone below 10, it marked an insane buying opportunity:
- March 2020: Fear hit 10, BTC at $3,800 → went to $64k (1,584% gain)
- Dec 2018: Fear hit 8, BTC at $3,200 → ran to $29k (806% gain)
- Nov 2022: Fear hit 11, BTC at $15,500 → pumped to $109k (603% gain)
Could we go lower? Absolutely, $50k is definitely possible if we get another black swan or macro implodes further. Just because whales are buying doesn't mean the bottom is in TODAY.