While crypto prices weaken, Prediction Markets maintain high activity due to event-driven demand rather than price cycles.
Leading platforms remain in pre-token or early TGE phases, creating potential early-stage positioning opportunities.
Global sports events like the World Cup could trigger the next major growth phase for Prediction Markets.
As crypto sentiment plunges into extreme fear, Prediction Markets are hitting record activity, fueled by real-world events, pre-token momentum, and major global catalysts.
CRYPTO MARKET FALLS INTO EXTREME FEAR — BUT PREDICTION MARKETS KEEP SETTING NEW ACTIVITY RECORDS
If we look only at price action, there is very little to be excited about in today’s crypto market.
After last week’s sharp sell-off, Bitcoin’s rebound has been limited, while altcoins remain broadly weak. Risk appetite has clearly contracted. Market sentiment reflects this shift: according to Alternative.me, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 25 last month, briefly plunged to 7 yesterday, and despite a mild rebound today, remains firmly in “Extreme Fear” territory.
Yet against this bleak backdrop, one vertical is moving in the opposite direction — Prediction Markets continue to heat up.
On-chain data shows that weekly nominal trading volume in Prediction Markets has risen significantly in recent weeks. Although activity dipped slightly last week, volumes remain near historical highs. This suggests that user demand has not declined with weakening market conditions. Instead, participation has become more stable and resilient.
The core reason is simple: Prediction Markets are not driven by crypto price volatility, but by real-world events.
From major sports leagues — basketball, football, NFL, tennis, hockey, League of Legends — to macro policy shifts, Fed rate cuts, potential U.S. government shutdowns, and even entertainment topics, new trading opportunities emerge almost every day.
(https://dune.com/datadashboards/prediction-markets)
As a result, unlike traditional crypto trading that depends heavily on market cycles, Prediction Markets are driven by “event flow.” Their activity is far less sensitive to price trends, allowing them to maintain high engagement even during downturns.
MORE IMPORTANTLY, PREDICTION MARKETS ARE STILL IN THE PRE-TOKEN PHASE
Many crypto sectors share a common pattern: by the time most users start paying attention, the token has already been issued, and early-stage returns are largely gone.
Prediction Markets, however, are currently in the opposite position.
User growth is accelerating, while the token cycle is only just beginning.
The strongest signal comes from Polymarket. Its parent company, Blockratize, recently filed a trademark application for “POLY,” covering tokens and related financial services. According to sources, Polymarket’s management has confirmed plans to launch a native POLY token and conduct an airdrop, though the timeline has not yet been announced.
This suggests that today’s high levels of trading and interaction may still be occurring in the early phase of a potential airdrop window.
Meanwhile, on BNB Chain, Opinion — currently one of the most discussed Prediction Markets platforms — has launched OPN airdrop tasks through Binance Wallet Booster, widely interpreted as a sign that its TGE is approaching.
At the same time, Opinion recently completed a $20 million Series A round led by Hack VC, Jump Crypto, Primitive Ventures, and Decasonic, signaling that institutional investors are positioning early in this sector.
Market expectations also remain strong. On Polymarket, the probability of “Opinion’s first-day FDV exceeding $500 million” currently stands at 76%, with nearly $4 million in trading volume.
In a weak altcoin environment, such high probabilities reflect broad expectations that the project may still receive strong price support at launch.
Driven partly by Opinion’s upcoming TGE, another BNB Chain platform, predict.fun — which ranks among the leaders in weekly volume — has also seen rising community engagement.
Notably, founder dingaling recently stated in Discord that “many things are still in preparation” and hinted at major updates later this month, further boosting market attention.
THE WORLD CUP MAY MARK THE REAL BREAKOUT MOMENT FOR PREDICTION MARKETS
This morning’s Super Bowl already provided a clear reference point.
On Polymarket alone, trading volume for “Super Bowl Champion” markets exceeded $700 million. A single event generated massive liquidity.
However, the Super Bowl is primarily a U.S.-focused event. The World Cup is on an entirely different scale.
Compared with a single match, the World Cup lasts longer, features far more games, and attracts global participation. From group stages to knockouts, new markets emerge almost daily: qualification odds, score ranges, matchups, Golden Boot winners, and championship probabilities.
This high-frequency event flow over several weeks tends to generate sustained trading activity, rather than short-lived traffic spikes.
If the Super Bowl has already proven that major sports events can drive explosive short-term volume, the World Cup is more likely to determine whether Prediction Markets enter their next phase of user growth and liquidity.
It is highly likely that many platforms will launch their tokens around the World Cup cycle. From this perspective, the current period may represent one of the best accumulation windows.
Personally, in a weak market environment, I would rather place more bets on Prediction Markets than chase underperforming altcoins.
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〈The Underrated Edge of Prediction Markets: All-Weather Trading Opportunities〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。
