Theo Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures, the current state of the cryptocurrency market is unfolding almost exactly according to historical patterns.

That's why he is skeptical about overly optimistic predictions regarding the recent market bottom. 'When people think the bottom will be at $80,000 and the market only declines for six weeks, that seems ridiculous to me,' Terpin said at the Consensus Hong Kong 2026 conference on Thursday.

Predictions that Bitcoin will bottom out at $60,000 and immediately continue to rise seem somewhat hasty. "That also seems a bit early."

Although he does not forecast another year-long downturn, Terpin believes the market may face "another tough phase" in what he describes as a fragile environment. He suggests that Bitcoin could return to levels around $50,000 or even $40,000 before establishing a sustainable bottom.

The halving event is a core element of Bitcoin's design as it cuts the rewards miners receive for validating transactions in half approximately every four years, reducing the rate at which new coins are created.

This inherent supply shock reinforces Bitcoin's scarcity, a core part of its value, and historically has appeared before major price increases when new supply decreases meet stable or increasing demand.

The halving mechanism helps slow Bitcoin's inflation rate over time, ultimately capping the total supply at 21 million coins and reinforcing its position as digital gold.

"We are right where we should be," Terpin argued, pointing out the firmly established four-year cycle surrounding Bitcoin's halving events.

He argues that one of the most reliable factors of previous cycles is the approximate timing of the bubble peak and the subsequent collapse.

"The bull market exploded in Q4 after the halving event," he commented, adding that the speculative boom phase typically lasts from 9 to 11 months. "This time it lasted up to 11 months."

Terpin closely compares it to the previous cycle. He said: "The peak, the bubble burst, was on November 10, 2021. The bottom was just after FTX declared bankruptcy on November 10, 2022. Exactly one year after that date."

Even the broader four-year cycle shows incredible consistency. A complete cycle is only off by three days from the standard four-year cycle, while the first halving cycle is only off by a few weeks compared to a year in structure from peak to trough, according to Terpin.