Yesterday, a friend told me: "The pace of this bear market is too fast, it feels off."
I laughed directly after hearing that. Not because I was laughing at him, but because 90% of the people in this market are making the same basic mistake: using the wrong script.
It's like using a 2018 map to find a newly opened mall in 2024; it's surprising if you can find it.
Fatal Application Thinking
Most people are currently doing one thing: trying to force this bear market into the template of the last one.
This is how they think:
- The decline from October to November 2025 = Last round of wave A
- The rebound from November to January this year = Last round of wave B
- The decline from January to February = The last wave C
It seems reasonable, right? After all, the technical pattern really looks similar.
But this is a typical "carving a boat to seek a sword" mentality. The market never completely repeats itself; it only rhymes.
Three fatal flaws
If you analyze carefully, you will find that this application has three fatal flaws:
Flaw one: wave shape mismatch
The last bear market's wave A was a standard five-wave decline, while the decline from October to November this time is clearly a three-wave decline. It's like insisting that a square is round, how can that be?
Flaw two: the rebound is not enough
Historically, every bear market's wave B will rebound to the 0.5 retracement of wave A, this is a hard rule. But this time, the rebound from November to January only reached 0.382, which is not enough to qualify as wave B.
Flaw three: the time cycle is too short
The last three bear markets lasted over a year, and now after just 4 months, you want it to end? The market isn't that merciful.
There is only one truth
What is the actual situation?
This bear market is a standard 5-3-5 sawtooth adjustment. The rebound from November to January is not wave B at all, but merely the fourth sub-wave of wave A.
Now that wave A has just completed, what comes next is:
- 2-3 months of wave B rebound (target around 87,000)
- 5-7 months of wave C decline (target 37,000-40,000)
- It's highly probable we will see a bottom in the fourth quarter
Why is everyone using the wrong script?
To put it bluntly, it's laziness.
Using ready-made templates is much easier than analyzing from scratch. But the market most despises lazy investors.
The wave structure of each bear market is different; this one may resemble the one in 2014 more closely, just with different details. If you are still using the script from 2022, then just wait to be educated by the market.
The last sentence
History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.
Those who truly make money are never the ones who follow a script, but those who write the script.
Now you know why 90% of people are making mistakes, right? Because they are using someone else's map and walking their own path.
