China Draws a New Export Map Under Trump’s Tariffs
Tariffs don’t just raise prices; they redraw routes. As Trump presses for tougher duties and U.S. officials talk more openly about “backdoor” entry, Chinese exporters are shifting from simple rerouting to real relocation. Mexico’s December 2025 decision to lift tariffs—many up to 35%—and Beijing talks this week show how tightly North America is policing the map, especially ahead of the USMCA review due on July 1, 2026. The new playbook looks less like relabeling and more like building: assembly lines and finishing steps in Mexico or Southeast Asia, plus a harder push into Europe, the Gulf, and emerging Asia. China’s 2025 trade surplus still hit a record even as exporters worked to diversify beyond the U.S., which says a lot about where the momentum is heading. It’s a new map—more checkpoints, higher costs, fewer shortcuts.