The price of XRP today is trading close to $1.38, signaling initial signs of stabilization after weeks of weakness. In the chart, a well-known recovery pattern has started to form, similar to other past configurations that preceded strong valuations. However, on-chain and derivatives data do not confirm the optimism.
The buying pressure has dropped sharply, long-term investors have retreated, and the risks associated with leverage remain high. This creates a contrast between what the charts indicate and the actual behavior of investors.
XRP price shows a known recovery pattern
Since the end of January, XRP has been forming a structure that previously preceded significant recoveries.
Between January 31 and February 11, the price recorded lower lows while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed higher lows. The RSI assesses the strength of buying and selling movements. When the price weakens and the RSI improves, it indicates that selling pressure is decreasing and momentum may be changing.
A similar setup, also on the 12-hour chart, appeared at the end of December 2025.
During that period, XRP exhibited the same type of divergence before resuming the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on January 2. After that movement, the price bounced back more than 28%. Now, the structure is repeating itself again. The EMA is a trend indicator that assigns greater weight to recent prices to show short-term momentum.
The current divergence indicates that the negative momentum is losing strength. If XRP can recover the region of $1.50, which is close to the 20-period EMA and the previous resistance, this may attract greater buying interest.
However, on-chain data still does not confirm the recovery hypothesis.
Flows on exchanges and investors indicate a collapse in buying.
On-chain metrics help understand why the recovery signal is facing difficulties.
An important indicator is the Net Position Change on Exchanges. This data shows how the total amount of XRP held on exchanges has varied over the last 30 days. Practically, it indicates whether balances are increasing or decreasing monthly. When the number is quite negative, there is a reduction in balances, generally associated with accumulation or withdrawals.
On February 8, XRP recorded net outflows of about 107 million tokens. By February 11, the balance dropped to approximately 16 million tokens.
This represents an 85% drop in buying pressure. In other words, investors have stopped reducing balances on exchanges with the same intensity. Demand has decreased, even with the chart indicating a favorable scenario for a rise.
The same movement is seen in the Net Position Change of Hodlers, which tracks wallets that hold XRP for more than 155 days.
On February 1, long-term investors added about 337 million in XRP. By February 11, the accumulation volume dropped to around 128 million XRP.
This corresponds to a reduction of more than 60%.
In summary, exchange balances have started to grow again, reflecting the weakening of long-term accumulation. Investors who usually support robust recoveries remain cautious. But what is the reason?
Risk with derivatives explains why investors are hesitating
In the perpetual XRP/USDT market on Binance, medium-term liquidation data reveals a clear prevalence of short positions. In the next 30 days, exposure to seller-side liquidation reaches nearly $148 million, while the buyer side is close to $83 million.
This highlights that traders are being defensive, positioning themselves for downside risks. Long-term investors seem to be following this majority.
Short-term positioning shows a distinct scenario.
In the one-day period, this time on Gate, long position liquidations are close to $63.9 million, while shorts are around $51 million. This indicates that there are 30% more positions exposed on the buying side. If the price of XRP drops, even slightly, in a weak and fearful market, long positions may be liquidated quickly, resulting in an even more significant drop.
Long-term investors are attentive to this risk, as long position liquidations previously affected optimism. Therefore, instead of betting on a fragile recovery, they await confirmations and prefer to position themselves in intermediate terms, mainly in shorts. This explains why spot buying pressure has not yet returned, even in the face of the bullish divergence.
XRP price levels to watch now
With technical optimism clashing with low conviction, price levels become decisive. The main support is near $1.34.
This range coincides with the highest concentration of long position liquidations. If XRP closes below $1.34, there could be forced selling, and the recovery structure would be nullified. In this scenario, the quote could retreat to $1.12. On the upside, $1.50 remains a fundamental resistance.
This level aligns with the 20-period exponential moving average and a psychological barrier. If there is a consistent rise above $1.50, confidence may return and attract long-term investors again. Without this breakout, recovery attempts tend to remain fragile.
At this moment, XRP is between moderate advancement and loss of confidence. The chart indicates that pressure is decreasing.
Blockchain data indicates a lack of demand, and derivatives numbers show that risk persists. As long as XRP does not remain above $1.34 and recover $1.50, the recovery scenario remains weak.
The article 'XRP signals recovery history, but purchases drop 85% — what to expect from the price?' was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
