2.12 Gold Evening Analysis: High Pressure, Short-term Speculation Intensifies

News Interpretation

The market focuses on the upcoming release of the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 7, expected to be 222,000. If the data performs strongly, it will further strengthen the logic of cooling expectations for a March interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on gold prices; conversely, if the data is weak, it may provide rebound momentum for gold prices. The U.S. dollar index remains oscillating above 104, and the 10-year Treasury yield has slightly rebounded, which reduces the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars, becoming an important factor in suppressing gold prices. After the previous rapid rise, profit-taking sentiment in the market has intensified, combined with technical overbought signals, leading long positions to become cautious and resulting in increased volatility in gold prices.

Technical Analysis

From the 1-hour chart, prices are running below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with upper resistance around 5090 and lower support around 5050, while the middle band at 5070 forms short-term pressure. Short-term moving averages are turning downwards, creating a resistance on prices, indicating that short-term bearish forces dominate. The DIFF line and DEA line have a death cross moving down, and the green energy bars continue to expand, indicating that short-term bearish momentum is still being released.

Trading Strategy

Short positions can be taken lightly near the 5070-5080 area under pressure, targeting 5050.

If prices fall to around 5040-5050 and find support, light long positions can be taken, targeting 5070#黄金