$XMR is in a downtrend on the daily chart, forming a short-term consolidation platform around 340, but the rebound momentum is weak, and selling pressure is heavy above.
🎯 Direction: Stay in cash
Market analysis: The price is repeatedly contested near the 4H EMA20 (338.5), but multiple attempts to rise have been suppressed below the resistance zone of 354-356. The latest 4H candlestick closed lower, with a buy/sell ratio of 0.54 slightly above equilibrium, which is not a strong accumulation signal.
Logical hard core: The key contradiction lies in the divergence between the trend and short-term data. The daily EMA50 (349.8) poses strong resistance, and the overall trend is downward. Although the current price is slightly above EMA20, and the deep imbalance shows a slight accumulation of buying (10.42%), the OI trend is stable and the funding rate is positive (0.01%), which rules out the possibility of a short squeeze or strong accumulation by the main force.
Market psychology: The price drop accompanied by stable open interest suggests that it may be a slow stop-loss by bulls or orderly accumulation by bears rather than panic selling. The consolidation around 340 resembles a continuation of the downtrend rather than the formation of a bottom. Before a clear bottom reversal structure (such as a significant bullish engulfing with volume, or a substantial rise in OI) appears, the risk of going long against the trend is extremely high.
Risk control perspective: The ATR is 13, indicating significant market volatility. Long positions lack clear supporting structures and evidence of capital inflow; short positions face short-term support from deep buy orders, making the risk/reward ratio unfavorable. The best strategy is to wait for the price to make a directional choice.
Trade here 👇$XMR
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