The price of XRP today is trading close to USD 1.38 and shows early signs of stability after several weeks of weakness. A familiar rebound pattern has begun to form on the chart, similar to past patterns that led to strong surges. However, data from on-chain and derivatives markets has not yet confirmed this optimism.
Buying pressure has decreased rapidly, long-term holders are slowing down their activities, and leverage risk remains high. This situation creates a conflict between what the charts suggest and the actual behavior of investors.
XRP price creates original rebound pattern
Since late January, XRP has created a structure similar to past structures that were used as major recovery signals.
Between January 31 and February 11, the price made consistently lower lows while the Relative Strength Index or RSI made higher lows. The RSI is used to measure the strength of buying and selling pressure. When prices decline but the RSI improves, it signals that selling pressure is waning and momentum may be changing.
The same type of pattern that appeared on the 12-hour chart also occurred in late December 2025.
At that time, XRP showed a similar divergence signal before it could reclaim the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) on January 2. After that, the price surged more than 28%, and now the structure appears similar once again. The EMA is a trend indicator that weights recent prices more heavily to indicate short-term momentum.
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The divergence occurring now indicates that bearish momentum is slowing down. If XRP can reclaim the USD 1.50 zone, which is the same level as the 20 EMA and previous resistance, it may attract even more buying pressure.
However, the data on the blockchain does not support the recovery theory, at least not at this moment.
Cash inflows and holders indicate that trading has decreased significantly.
Various indices on the blockchain help explain why recovery signals are still weak.
One of the key indicators is the Exchange Net Position Change, which shows how the total volume of XRP held on exchanges has changed over the past 30 days. Simply put, it indicates whether the balance of XRP on exchanges increased or decreased over the month. When the value is clearly negative, the XRP balance on exchanges tends to contract, indicating accumulation or outflow.
On February 8, XRP recorded a net outflow of approximately 107 million tokens, and by February 11, the outflow decreased to around 16 million tokens.
That is a drop of up to 85% of buying pressure, meaning that investors are no longer rapidly reducing their asset quantities in the exchange market as demand has clearly weakened, even though the chart shows bullish signals.
The same pattern appears in the net position change indicator of Hodlers, which tracks wallets holding XRP for more than 155 days.
On February 1, long-term holders added approximately 337 million XRP, and by February 11, their accumulation decreased to around 128 million XRP
This figure represents a decrease of more than 60%
In summary, the volume of XRP on exchanges is increasing, clearly due to weakening long-term accumulation. Investors who typically support a strong recovery are choosing to be cautious. So why is that?
Derivative risk makes holders hesitant
In the XRP/USDT Perpetual market on Binance, medium-term liquidation data shows that short positions dominate predominantly. In the next 30 days, the risk of liquidation on the short side is about 148 million USD, while the long side is close to 83 million USD.
This data shows that traders have taken a defensive stance and are positioning for downside risk, which long-term holders seem to agree with the majority here.
However, the short-term position is telling another story.
In the one-day timeframe, there is currently a long-side short of about 63.9 million USD on Gate, while the short side is around 51 million USD, meaning there is now more than 30% open long positions. If the price of XRP drops even slightly, due to a weak market and concerns, it could lead to forced liquidation of long positions, resulting in a heavier drop.
Long-term holders are well aware of this risk, as long-side shorts have previously impacted confidence. Therefore, instead of rushing to buy the weak rebound, they are waiting for confirmation and choosing to remain in a medium-term position, which is mostly short. This is why spot buying pressure has not returned, even with bullish divergence signals.
XRP price levels to watch now
With the technical picture still positive but sentiment weakening, price positioning has become the most critical factor. Currently, the main support level is around 1.34 USD.
This zone corresponds to the point with the most short positions. If XRP closes below 1.34 USD, it could lead to forced selling and the rebound pattern will be canceled. If that happens, the price may move to 1.12 USD, while the upside at 1.50 USD remains the main resistance.
This level corresponds to the 20 EMA and psychological resistance. If the price stabilizes above 1.50 USD, it will help restore confidence and bring long-term buyers back. If there is no breakout, the rebound point may still remain unstable.
Currently, XRP is caught between improving momentum, but sentiment is still declining. The chart indicates that selling pressure is starting to ease.
Blockchain data indicates a lack of demand, while derivatives market data shows that risk remains high. Until XRP stands above 1.34 USD and returns to 1.50 USD, the rebound outlook remains weak.
