According to crypto analyst Axel (on February 12), the two most important liquidity indicators currently are both emitting clear negative signals, indicating that capital is still continuing to withdraw from the ecosystem and Bitcoin is in a prolonged 'risk-averse' phase.
1. 90-day Bitcoin SSR indicator (Stablecoin Supply Ratio)
Currently at -0.15 (negative zone).
In mid-January 2026: this indicator once surged +0.057 (positive zone) for a very short time.
At the same time, the 30-day capitalization change of USDT also rose back to +1.4 billion USD.
These two signals coincided perfectly when Bitcoin hit the short-term threshold of 95,000 USD.
However, both indicators failed to maintain their upward momentum. By early February, the 90-day SSR had turned back down into negative territory, while Bitcoin plunged to 67,000 USD.
Axel commented: “January was just a temporary repair effort. February has proven that it was a failed effort.”
2. The flow of stablecoin (USDT)
The 30-day market capitalization change of USDT is currently at -2.87 billion USD – the sharpest decline in recent months. This figure confirms that stablecoin funds are continuously flowing out of the crypto ecosystem.
Medium-term outlook
Axel emphasized:
1. The past 6 months are still in the “pink zone” (indicating Bitcoin is weaker than stablecoin) → the market is still in risk-off mode.
2. A real reversal signal only appears when the 90-day SSR indicator returns and stabilizes above 0 (green zone) for at least 2-3 consecutive weeks.
3. Before there is a confirming signal, every recovery should be viewed as a high-volatility trap.
In summary
The two strongest liquidity indicators currently are both signaling negatively. The market shows no signs of forming a solid bottom and is still in a phase of “failed repair.” Investors are advised to maintain a cautious attitude, avoiding FOMO into short-term increases until the 90-day SSR indicator truly stabilizes back into the positive zone.
Source: Axel's analysis, dated 12/02/2026.
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