Markets do not play dice. Since 2017, Bitcoin has been following a precise fractal structure. Forget the noise, forget the FUD, and let's look at the Market Structure.
Here are the facts, cycle by cycle :
Cycle 1 (2017–2019) : The discovery
Top : ~$21k
Correction : ~84%
Bottom (Accumulation) : Solid base between $3k and $4k
Result : Historic breakout.
Cycle 2 (2021–2022) : The confirmation
ATH : $69k
Correction : ~77%
Bottom (Accumulation) : Major support between $15k and $17k
Result : Recovery and expansion.
Where are we today? (Cycle 3 ?)
If we overlay this pattern on the current market:
Local peak: ~$126k
Correction: >70%
Current demand zone: Forming a floor between $45k and $55k.
The pattern is always the same:
Vertical Expansion (Euphoria)
Brutal Correction (Panic Sell)
Long Accumulation (The Boredom Phase)
New Bullish Impulse.
Percentages vary, but the mechanics remain intact.
Smart Money vs Retail
The real question is not "Is it going to dump again?", but "Is the long-term structure broken?".
In every cycle, the psychology is the same:
Fear dominates at the bottom.
Euphoria dominates at the top.
"Smart Money" does not look at the price, it looks at the structure.
What changes in this cycle:
🐋 Massive entry from institutions and large funds.
🧠 Market maturity.
💧 Direct correlation with global liquidity (Global Net Liquidity).
The Verdict
History teaches us that Bitcoin moves first according to psychological cycles before moving in price. If this third cycle respects its predecessors, we are currently in the "Wealth Building Zone": this calm period where accumulation takes place before the movement.
⚠️ The only risk: If the structure breaks (support breakdown), then we enter a new paradigm.
The market will not send you bright signals. It leaves subtle clues for those who know how to read the structure rather than succumb to their emotions.
