🚀 Interest rate cut dreams shattered? The Federal Reserve's "hawkish" tone is loud, with dual pressures of employment and inflation!
The Federal Reserve has recently released strong signals of inaction, causing the market's originally optimistic expectations for an interest rate cut to suffer a severe blow.
🚨 Core interpretation: Why no interest rate cut?
The job market is "hot": January's non-farm employment unexpectedly surged, and a 4.3% ultra-low unemployment rate proves that the resilience of the U.S. economy far exceeds expectations, leaving the Federal Reserve lacking urgency for an interest rate cut in the short term.
Inflation clouds have not dispersed: Powell bluntly stated that tariff policies have become a barrier to falling inflation. Officials expect inflation pressures to peak in mid-2026, and before that, interest rates will remain high at 3.5% - 3.75%.
Policy positioning: Federal Reserve official Schmid clearly stated that "restrictive" interest rates should be maintained. Traders have violently pushed back the timetable for the next interest rate cut from June to July.
⚖️ Future points of contention
Although balance sheet reduction has stopped and liquidity remains, high interest rates will persist for longer (Higher for Longer) has once again become the main theme.
#美联储降息！泼天的富贵，走势兑现，消息面相对滞后，结构面永远领先消息面~
Currently, the market's attention is closely focused on Trump's nominee successor Warsh (Kevin Warsh), as the independence of the Federal Reserve and the continuity of its policies are facing unprecedented challenges.
