Bitcoin losing $70K changed the mood fast.

Price is now hovering in the mid-$60Ks, momentum clearly bearish, structure weakened, and traders on the defensive. Lower highs. Strong rejection from reclaimed levels. Moving averages flipping into resistance.

Short term? Not pretty.

But here’s the part that really stood out to me 👇

On-chain data shows Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss (7-day MA) dropping near -$2B, levels comparable to the June 2022 Luna/UST crash.

That’s serious capitulation.

However, context matters.

Back in 2022, those losses happened around $19K.

Now, They’re happening near $67K.

That’s a massive difference.

Capitulation or Structural Collapse?

Realized losses around $2.3B suggest forced selling, likely late-cycle buyers and leveraged traders getting flushed.

But this doesn’t look like systemic failure.

It looks more like cyclical cleansing.

There’s no major network breakdown. No structural implosion like Terra. What we’re seeing feels more like:

• Overextended longs getting liquidated

• High-cost basis buyers cutting losses

• Leverage resetting

• Market transitioning into a defensive phase

Historically, extreme realized losses often mark emotional washouts, not necessarily long-term tops.

The Real Battleground

Technically, $70K is lost. That’s clear.

Now the $60K–$62K zone becomes critical. That area aligns with prior consolidation and liquidity clusters. If that holds, we could see stabilization and range-building.

If it breaks, deeper retrace is on the table.

Volume spikes during the drop suggest deleveraging, not slow distribution. That distinction matters.

My Honest Take

This feels uncomfortable and that’s usually the point.

When realized losses spike this aggressively, it often means weak hands are exiting. The market is repricing expectations.

But we’re not at $19K. We’re still structurally higher in the cycle.

That doesn’t mean bottom is in.

It just means the narrative isn’t “collapse.”

It’s reset.

Big difference.

I’m personally watching:

• Whether realized losses start cooling

• If $60K demand shows real strength

• Whether OI resets or builds aggressively again

Capitulation phases are emotional. But they’re also where long-term structure often resets.

Is this the start of a deeper bear phase or just another brutal mid-cycle flush?