The Non-Farm Payrolls Release 'Two-Sided Market'! January Surged by 130,000, Last Year's Downward Revision of 860,000, Fed Rate Cut Still in Limbo
The U.S. January Non-Farm Payrolls delivered the most contradictory employment report in history, directly stirring global risk assets! An addition of 130,000 people far exceeded expectations of 65,000, marking the largest increase since April 2025; the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with all monthly data showing strength. However, the annual benchmark revision was a massive disaster, with employment data for 2025 being drastically revised down by 862,000, and the annual addition plummeting from 584,000 to 181,000, with 25 out of the past 26 reports being revised down, thoroughly exposing the real weakness.
After the data was released, the market instantly changed face: U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. stock futures rose simultaneously, prompting traders to directly reduce their bets on a rate cut in June, postponing the first rate cut to July. On one side, January's employment strength was maximized, suppressing the space for rate cuts; on the other, last year's data was heavily revised down, revealing economic concerns, putting the Fed in a dilemma of 'to cut or not to cut.'
In terms of industry structure, healthcare, construction, and manufacturing are warming up, full-time positions have greatly increased, temporary employment continues to shrink, and employment quality has slightly improved. This report of 'half hot, half cold' makes the macro environment of the crypto market even harder to predict.
Strong data suppresses rate cuts, weak revisions leave room; do you think the Fed will delay rate cuts or stick to easing? Is this a bearish signal or an opportunity for BTC and ETH?
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