Unemployment rate 'reversal'! The recession alarm is officially lifted, is the US stock market officially entering the 'Trump rhythm'?
January non-farm data exploded onto the scene, directly injecting a super strong booster shot into the bulls!
Although some question the data's credibility (various factors like weather, benchmark revisions, and delayed releases are all involved), the short-term sentiment is just that realistic — it really pulled the market back from the edge of the cliff.
The most critical reversal signal: the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.4% to 4.3%, while non-farm employment increased by 130,000 people, far exceeding the market's expectation of 50,000-70,000! This blow directly shattered the pessimistic narrative that 'the US economy is about to stall and hard land.'
The current market logic is very clear: No recession is more important than the rate cut itself. As long as employment resilience remains, the panic of recession has no play.
Even more impressive is the wage side: average hourly earnings increased both month-on-month and year-on-year, workers' pockets continue to thicken, and the internal driving force of consumption remains strong. This kind of 'warm growth' is precisely the hardest floor support for the US stock market — when the public has money to spend, companies dare to invest and double down.
And a bigger wind shift is occurring: the market focus has shifted from 'Powell watching the data' to 'Trump watching the Federal Reserve.'
Although strong employment has temporarily reduced the probability of a rate cut, everyone knows in their hearts:
In the eyes of Trump and his handpicked prospective Fed chair, monetary policy is no longer just a cold inflation adjustment tool, but a powerful weapon to align with industrial policy, trade policy, and fiscal expansion.
This strong employment data has bought valuable time for Trump's radical reforms (tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation, immigration policy, manufacturing return). As long as the economy does not collapse, Trump can push his 'America First 2.0' more boldly.
Now Wall Street no longer stares at every word from Powell, but starts to bet: When will the era of direct political intervention in rate cuts officially unfold?
Recession panic? It’s over.
Rate cut trades? Temporarily cooled.
But the 'Trump trade' — is just about to start fermenting.
US stocks, get ready to welcome the real 'Trump Rhythm'! 🚀
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