Buying Microsoft $MSFT now means the valuation you are paying is almost identical to some of the most classic 'bottom fishing points' in history—if not cheaper!
It's outrageous, but the data doesn't lie.
First, look at the key indicators: currently, Microsoft's **forward P/E** is around 24x (some sources show a range of 23-25x), trailing P/E is about 25.3x, and the valuation levels during those historical lows are remarkably similar.
- The low point of the bear market in 2018 (around the Christmas crash): the stock price fell to the 90-100 dollar range, trailing PE often hovered around 22-25x (quarterly lows even below 22x), forward PE was even lower. At that time, the market was panicking over the tech bubble burst, and Microsoft took off from there, skyrocketing several times in the following years.
- The low point of the COVID-19 pandemic crash in 2020 (March plunge): stock price bottomed around $135-150, trailing PE dropped to around 25x (quarterly data 24.6-27x), forward PE became more attractive. That was the fastest bear market in human history, but the demand for Microsoft's cloud + Office remote work exploded, directly increasing several times from the low point.
- The low point of the bear market in 2022 (double whammy of inflation and interest rate hikes): stock price bottomed in the range of $210-240, trailing PE of 24-26x (lowest quarterly at 24.4x), forward PE also compressed to around 25x. At that time, the market was shouting 'tech stocks are dead', and what happened? With the surge of AI, Microsoft directly returned to its historical high.
And now? In February 2026, Microsoft's stock price fluctuated around $400, trailing PE at 25.3x, forward PE around 24x—this valuation level has a very high overlap with the three 'divine bottoms' mentioned above!
Why is this so ridiculous?
- Microsoft's business has never been this strong: accelerated growth in Azure cloud, stable enterprise subscriptions for Office + Copilot, global leadership in AI infrastructure (OpenAI + self-developed).
- Explosive profitability: high profit margin, cash cow, buybacks + dividends working in tandem.
- However, the market's short-term panic (macroeconomic uncertainty, competitive concerns, inertia of adjustments) has pushed valuations down to these historical low ranges.
Simply put: what you're buying now is not an 'expensive tech stock', but 'Microsoft at the bottom of the bear market'—exactly the same as the moments in 2018, 2020, and 2022 that left countless people regretting not going heavily invested.
Of course, there are no 100% certainties in the stock market. But historical data shows: every time Microsoft's valuation compresses to around 25x (especially forward PE below 24x), the returns in the following years are super rich.
Too ridiculous? No, the opportunity is just too obvious.
Dare you go all in on this wave of 'history repeating'?
The next 10x starting point may be right now.
(Data is based on the latest updates from public financial websites like Yahoo Finance, Macrotrends, GuruFocus, etc. Valuations will adjust slightly with stock prices and financial reports, but the current levels indeed align closely with historical bear market lows.)
