XRP (XRP) has fallen about 15% in the last week and approximately 33% over the last 30 days, trading at $1.37. However, analyst Arthur claims that the monthly chart indicates that the upward channel maintained for 9 years points to the $0.85 to $0.95 range as a key support area, where institutional capital could re-enter the market.
What happened: The monthly chart indicates a support line
Arthur analyzed the price movements of XRP from March 2017 to the present in a detailed thread posted on X, based on the monthly chart. The lower end of the upward channel, tested multiple times over 9 years, is currently positioned about 30% below the current price.
Arthur noted, 'The bottom of the monthly channel likely indicates a period when 'smart money' returns.' He pointed out that the largest trading volume spike in XRP's history occurred between November 2020 and April 2021, and that the volume during the rally above $2 in 2024 was only a quarter of that.
'Real money has not returned yet,' he said. 'What we saw in 2024 was just the movements of whales and some funds. It was not the type of institutional money flow that changes the market forever.'
According to data from Arab Chain's derivatives, over the past 30 days, XRP futures open interest decreased by approximately 1.8 billion XRP on Bybit, 1.6 billion XRP on Binance, and 1.5 billion XRP on Kraken. This suggests that traders are liquidating existing positions rather than building new leveraged positions.
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Why It Matters: Changes in the macro environment support the logic
Arthur presented five macro factors that distinguish the beginning of 2026 from previous cycles. These include regulatory clarity resulting from the conclusion of the Ripple and SEC lawsuit, the launch and expansion of RLUSD, and the increased institutional adoption of Ripple technology. He also emphasized the accelerating tokenization narrative and that the infrastructure he calls 'real institutional infrastructure' is already in place.
He stated, 'Technical analysis is always driven by the macro environment,'
'And the macro is pointing upwards,' he added. XRP has shown sharp rebounds several times in the past. During the 2018 bear market, it consolidated around $0.30 for several months before surging to $1.70 in April 2021, and after bottoming around $0.35 in the spring of 2022, it remained in a range until November 2024, breaking through $2, and then recorded an all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025.
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