$BTC 📈 BIAS: LONG

Why I’m Taking This Trade

Price is pinned just above the 24h low, yet sellers can’t drive it through. Volume collapsed from 690k → 1.1k — that’s exhaustion, not distribution. RSI tagged 27, StochRSI printed 1.4 and is curling up. MACD histogram just flipped positive for the first time in four days. The selling momentum is dead.

🧠 Higher Timeframe Context (4H)

4H trend is still bearish — I’m not calling a reversal. But bullish divergence is forming: price made a lower low, RSI made a higher low. Funding has been negative for six of the last eight periods — shorts are paying to stay short, trapped beneath value. The moment momentum shifts, they cover into my entries.

⏳ Lower Timeframe Execution (15m)

Supertrend still overhead at 67,380, but price is compressing between 66,750–66,850. Order book shows a massive bid cluster at 66,000 — smart money is defending. I don’t chase the low; I wait for absorption.

🔥 Entry Zone: 66,750 – 66,850

Retest of the overnight range low with bullish candlestick confirmation.

🛑 Stop Loss: 65,700

Below the 24h sweep low (65,718). Clean invalidation.

🎯 Take Profit Levels

TP1: 67,400 (Supertrend magnet)

TP2: 68,200 (1H EMA 9 + prior support)

TP3: 69,000 (psychological + pre‑drop base)

📊 R:R: 1 : 3.2 (66,800 entry, 65,700 stop, TP2)

⚠️ Invalidation

4H candle closes below 65,600. That traps me. Until then, this is a high‑probability mean reversion from oversold.

💣 Psychology

Retail sees -1.3% and shorts the breakdown, convinced the top is in. They ignore drying volume, bullish divergence, and negative funding. Smart money is accumulating the bid. The moment price lifts, those shorts cover into my longs.

This isn’t hope. This is structural edge. 🔥