The recent market can actually be summarized in one sentence:
The big coin is grinding sideways, but sentiment is dropping.
Many people feel that 'it hasn't dropped much,' but the funding situation has clearly started to shift to a defensive mode.
Below, let's clarify today's market state in a more understandable way.
1. BTC: It's not just volatility; it's 'sideways trading in a downward channel.'
On the surface, BTC seems to be hovering around 60,000, as if it has no direction.
But from a structural perspective, it has actually formed a standard descending channel.
Such market conditions are the easiest to mislead people—
The price hasn't plummeted → but the structure has turned bearish.
There are three key signals currently:
① The upper edge of the channel is the ceiling
68k–69k range is not just an integer level,
but also a resonance zone of Fibonacci + channel upper track.
Simply put:
Every time the price rebounds to here, it will encounter systemic selling pressure.
② Selling pressure comes from 'invisible funds'
CVD continues to decline
ETF shows net outflow
Leverage is gradually being squeezed out
When these three things happen simultaneously, it usually means:
👉 Large funds are slowly leaving the market, not crashing it.
This selling method is the most uncomfortable—
Prices don’t crash, but rebounds become weaker.
③ Tonight is a volatility window
US market data time is often the switching point of 'false calm → real volatility'.
This phase is most likely to show up:
Pin needle
False breakout
Bidirectional leverage sweep
So tonight the focus is not on making money, but on avoiding being swept out.
2. Altcoins: Not weak, but 'losing liquidity'
Many people ask: Why did altcoins suddenly drop together?
The answer is simple:
It's not that the project has worsened, but that funds are retreating.
When BTC enters the deleveraging phase, funds will do three things:
1) First withdraw from altcoins
2) Then reduce leverage
3) Finally act on BTC
So what we see now is:
SOL and DOGE begin to lag behind
Most coins are pulling back synchronously
Only a few safe-haven narratives are experiencing independent trends
This is actually a typical risk contraction period.
But there is an important understanding here:
Altcoins are not at an end, but are entering the 'compressed spring phase'.
Once BTC stops falling, the rebound elasticity of altcoins usually far exceeds expectations.
3. What should really be done now
This kind of market is prone to two mistakes:
Can't help but buy at the bottom
Can't help but increase the position
But the safest strategy in a downtrend channel is only one:
Survive first.
A few simple principles:
Do not go against the trend with heavy positions
Control single positions
Wait for structural changes before shifting
A true trend reversal must be accompanied by three signals:
Increased volume, breakout, structural change.
Before this, all rebounds are just rebounds.
What does the market look like now?
Like the sultry weather before a heavy rain.
There is no strong wind, but the air is becoming heavier.
This phase is not stimulating, but very crucial$BTC
