🧭 BTC tonight's core:
Upper edge of the channel = Lifeline
Currently, it is not a sideways market, but a consolidation phase in a downtrend.
A key sentence for you:
As long as the channel is not broken, all rebounds are just rebounds.
What phase of the market are we in now?
5 waves downward
What the market is doing is:
Down → Rebound → Preparing to choose whether to continue falling
The structure can be understood as:
Downtrend channel
⬇
Currently in the upper part of the channel oscillating
⬇
Waiting for a choice:
Continue to fall? Or trend reversal?
So right now the market is not without direction, but:
👉 The direction is already down, just waiting for the next push
Why 68000–69000 is the 'line of life and death'
This position has three layers of pressure:
Upper edge of the downward channel
Fibonacci retracement level
Cost area for rebound shorts
What does this mean?
This is not ordinary pressure, but rather:
The most comfortable area for shorts to add positions
If the price reaches here:
Shorts are willing to add positions
Stuck long positions are willing to break even
Short-term bulls start taking profits
So this naturally forms a selling pressure resonance area.
Why is there a 'risk of accelerated downward probing'
The three points you mentioned are crucial:
CVD continues to decline → Active selling pressure
ETF outflow → Long-term funds retreat
De-leveraging → No capital support
When these three things occur simultaneously, the market usually enters:
Liquidity-driven decline
This kind of market condition has only one characteristic:
Fast
It's not a slow decline, but rather:
Break below → Chain stop loss → Acceleration
The real meaning of 65000 support
Many people regard 65k as 'support',
But a more accurate statement is:
👉 Stop loss trigger area
Because what's piled below here is:
Stop loss for bottom-buying long positions
Interval long position stop loss
Leverage long position liquidation level
Once effectively broken, the market will experience:
Passive selling pressure released
So if it breaks, it usually won't move sideways,
But will directly look for the next liquidity pool = 60k
Why 60k is a super support
The significance of the 200-week moving average is not technical, but rather:
This is the cost area for long-term funds
Characteristics of long-term funds:
Do not chase highs
Do not bottom fish
Only buy in extreme panic
So the essence of 60k is:
Whether the market can re-attract long-term funds is the touchstone
Why is tonight at 21:00 dangerous
This is not metaphysics, it's trading structure:
U.S. market opening + data window =
The time period with the most concentrated liquidity throughout the day
This is when the easiest occurrences happen:
False breakout
Spike
Chain stop losses
So this is very crucial:
👉 Reduce positions before data / Hedge
This is a routine operation for professional traders.
🎯 The most important trading roadmap for tonight
Situation A: Rebound to 68–69k
Look:
Whether it can break through the upper edge of the channel with volume
No breakthrough =
Rebound short structure established
Situation B: Break below 65k
The market will enter:
Looking for liquidity at 60k
This period usually won't give too much time to enter.
Situation C: Volume breakthrough at 69k
This is the only signal that changes the script:
Needs to occur simultaneously:
Increased volume
Stand firm
Pullback without breaking
Otherwise, it's all considered a false breakout.
🧠 A trading principle in one sentence
Now is not the stage of 'finding the bottom',
But rather the stage of preventing being mistaken for the bottom.
Before the channel is broken:
Trend > Guessing
Tonight is indeed a
Very likely a window for direction.
