Bitcoin is currently trading around $65,000 after a strong correction, while market sentiment remains defensive. In this context, JPMorgan Chase set a long-term price target of $266,000 for $BTC, although emphasizing that this is not a short-term scenario.
At the current time, the macro environment is leaning towards risk aversion: technology stocks are weak, precious metals are adjusting, and recent security incidents are increasing caution. JPMorgan also noted that Bitcoin has been trading below the estimated production cost of about $87,000, a level that has historically acted as a cycle support area.
When the price remains below the mining cost for a long time, miners with high costs are often forced to leave the network. This process can reduce supply pressure and rebalance the mining structure, although it comes with short-term volatility.
In the long term, JPMorgan argues that Bitcoin is becoming more competitive compared to gold when adjusted for volatility. If $BTC reaches a proportion equivalent to the private sector's gold investment, the pricing calculation implies a range of $266,000 — not in the short term, but over a longer time frame.