The strangest thing about this round of the bitcoin bear market is that the people rushing in and those fleeing are not the same group.
In the past week, on-chain data shows that wallets holding over 1,000 bitcoins purchased 53,000 in one go. At current prices, that's over four billion dollars. This was the strongest buying momentum from large holders since last November. Just a few weeks ago, these wallets were frantically offloading.
This abrupt change in direction directly pulled the price back from the 60,000 mark to around 70,000. On Wednesday's Asian early session, bitcoin hovered around 69,100 dollars, neither up nor down.
But if you stretch the chart, things start to change.
Glassnode's data is very clear: excluding ETFs and exchange addresses, these large holders have been net sellers for a whole year. Just from mid-December last year to now, these wallets have drained over 170,000 Bitcoins, corresponding to a market value of about 11 billion dollars. In other words, the volume bought this week is not even enough to cover a fraction of what was sold in the previous months.
What's even more worth pondering is that this round of bottom-fishing is almost entirely being played by the large holders themselves.
Investors on the ETF side are generally trapped, with cost levels pressed above seventy thousand. No one is willing to cut losses at this position, nor is anyone in a hurry to increase their holdings. The listed companies are quieter—those firms that shouted about treating Bitcoin as a reserve asset two years ago now have their own stock prices lying on the ground gasping for air, with no surplus to rush in.
Bruno Ver讲得很直白，这位老牌加密货币投资者去年底出过一部分货，现在等着“风暴过去再回来”，但眼下他还在等。
So what does this week's increase of more than fifty thousand count for?
Brett Singer, the sales director at Glassnode, said very restrainedly: 'This can slow the pace of decline, but relying solely on it is not enough.' Translated, this means that large holders are indeed propping up, but they can't support the entire market.
In the past few cycles, the ones that have truly managed to generate sustained trends are never those intermittent 'fire-fighting purchases.' You need to see various addresses steadily accumulating, with ETFs, miners, exchange users, institutional custodians—all putting money in. The current situation is that, aside from this small group of wallets, all other participants are on the sidelines.
So where will the next wave of money come from?
No one can answer this. This is the most awkward part of the current market. Just because the price can stabilize does not mean the confidence has returned. It feels more like a group of people still holding bullets, providing cover for the goods they haven't sold out before.
This form has been seen in the past. After a few days of rebound and several weeks of sideways movement, it will continue to probe downwards. Unless a new and sustained demand主体 appears, the data this week is likely just an interlude, not a prelude.
