🔥Non-farm payroll shock! Is a rate cut in jeopardy? July becomes a key turning point
January's non-farm payrolls greatly exceeded expectations, adding 130,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, shocking the market! Expectations for a rate cut cooled instantly, and the first rate cut may be postponed until July. "New Federal Reserve Communications Agency" announced: A pause on rate cuts will last longer! Powell stated, "The economy has surprised again," hawks received ammunition, while doves were severely hit.
Even more astonishing is that the 2025 employment data has been revised down by 860,000, with only an increase of 181,000 for the entire year, marking a 20-year low! Behind the strong data, is it a recovery or an illusion? With Waller about to take office, whether he can push for a rate cut becomes the biggest suspense.
U.S. Treasury bonds collapsed, with the two-year yield soaring by 10 basis points, and traders bet on only a 49 basis point cut within the year. CPI becomes the next trump card; if the data is mild, there is still a glimmer of hope for a rate cut. Will July be the turning point? The suspense remains, and a storm is coming!
