Brothers, let me put it bluntly: I'm writing about $XPL (Plasma) not because it has risen and I want to ride the wave, but quite the opposite. It's because its recent state of being 'not very flashy but always working' is more reminiscent of a chain that can survive. You all understand the current market atmosphere—hype comes in waves, making people feel mentally fractured: on one side, the macro environment is unfriendly, and risk appetite hasn't fully returned; on the other side, the stablecoin narrative increasingly resembles a 'main narrative.' Whether you trade or not, USDT/USDC are quietly building a stronger foundation in the crypto world.
Plasma, on the other hand, is very 'straightforward': I'm not going to talk about the metaverse, and I'm not going to discuss AI narratives; I simply say—make stablecoin transfers as cheap, smooth, and scalable as sending a WeChat message. This sounds basic, but often basic things can earn money (or at least aren't easy to kill).
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1）Why is the path of “stablecoin chains” worth paying attention to right now?
I recently have a very obvious feeling: the market's tolerance for “payment/stablecoin infrastructure” has increased. In the past, when you talked about payments, a comment like “wanting to be Visa” could easily dismiss you; now it’s different, people are starting to ask seriously:
• How many stablecoins do you actually have on-chain?
• Can the real transfer volume and active addresses hold up?
• Is the prosperity you rely on just the result of subsidies?
Plasma can provide “at least not unsightly” answers to these three questions.
I speak directly with on-chain data, not with you about metaphysics:
• On DeFiLlama, the market cap of Plasma’s stablecoins (on-chain stablecoin scale) is around $1.854B, with USDT accounting for about 76%.
• On the same page, you can see that Bridged TVL is roughly $6.45B, Native is about $4.555B, indicating that this chain is not just an “empty shell with a few contracts staged.”
• Another detailed but crucial indicator: the on-chain 24h fees are roughly only $371.
What does this mean? It’s great for ordinary users, but for $XPL holders, you need to stay calm: you have to ask one question—where is the value capture?
So Plasma’s logic, from the very beginning, was not about “charging high gas fees to make money,” but more like “doing the underlying payment and turning stablecoin flow into a network moat.” Do you think this model is appealing? Yes, but it also tests long-term execution: without flow, there is nothing.
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2）Plasma’s real selling point: it’s not about “faster EVM,” but about “native stablecoins”
Many projects like to package themselves as “faster EVM chains,” and when I see such statements, I feel sleepy—brothers, such remarks are as empty as saying “I opened a milk tea shop, and it’s different from others because it’s tastier.”
The unique point of Plasma is that it designs around stablecoins as the “first citizens”:
• You can understand it as: this chain optimizes the transfer of USDT at the system level as its main business (even towards a “zero-fee USDT transfer” direction).
• It also emphasizes that it is a stablecoin payments-first L1, focusing on rapid settlement and the scaling of stablecoin scenarios.
Let me put it in simpler terms:
Most chains are “first have the chain, then find applications”; Plasma is “first lock in the stablecoin payment track, then build the chain to be more like utilities.”
You usually don’t praise utilities, but you can’t live without them.
3）Don’t pretend you can’t see the “real pressure”: there’s an unlock on February 25, don’t act like nothing happened
I particularly hate a kind of pretentious rationality in the crypto circle that is actually just pretending to be asleep: clearly, the unlock is right in front of us, but still saying “the bad news has all been released.” Brothers, the premise of bad news being all released is that—the market has digested the chips, not that you can digest it by writing a few words in the comments.
Currently, it can be clearly seen:
• Tokenomist shows that Plasma’s next unlock is on 2026-02-25, and it belongs to the Ecosystem & Growth release.
• Some tracking data will describe this unlock as approximately 88.89M XPL, accounting for a certain proportion of the circulating release rhythm.
My personal approach is very simple and straightforward:
1. Before unlocking, I only care about two things:
• Has the price weakened in advance (indicating someone is running away)
• On-chain stablecoin scale, TVL, and DEX transactions, has there been a synchronized drop (if on-chain data holds up, then it’s not just pure emotional trading)
2. After the unlock, I only look at one thing:
• Was the drop caught (if not caught, don’t force it; in the end, only “faith” is left)
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not bearish; I prioritize “survival.” The most expensive cost in crypto is not losing money, but failing to admit it after losing money and continuing to push yourself into a pit.
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4）A bigger “time bomb” is in the second half of 2026: you need to know in advance that it exists
In addition to monthly/periodic unlocks, Plasma has a major event that everyone will eventually have to face:
• Public information mentions that some distributions for U.S. participants will be delayed until 2026-07-28 (for compliance reasons).
• And you can also see in the market calendar/event tracking that there are expectations for larger scale unlocks around 2026-09-25 (different sources may vary slightly, but the direction of “there will be significant unlocking pressure” is consistent).
Why did I write this so straightforwardly? Because many people who invest in long-term chains never take the “supply curve” seriously, and in the end, classic disasters will occur:
Everything seems fine on-chain, but the coin price just won’t move—it’s simple: you are continuously pouring chips into the market every month, and the real demand cannot hold up.
So the key for XPL is not about how impressive the talk is, but whether it can turn stablecoin flow into sustainable demand to hedge against supply-side releases.
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5）So the question arises: does Plasma now have a “traffic embryo”?
I don’t like using the term “ecological prosperity,” it sounds too much like a PPT. Let’s look directly at the numbers:
• On DeFiLlama, the DEX transactions for Plasma are roughly $10.28M in 24h, and about $143.18M in 7d.
• The scale of stablecoins was mentioned earlier, close to the $1.85B level.
These data in the “new chain” are no longer small-scale actions. More crucially: a high proportion of stablecoins means it does not rely on a bunch of MEME to inflate fees, but is more about “funds staying + transfer settlement” structure.
I would use a very simple judgment:
If a stablecoin chain can maintain a stablecoin scale at the billion-dollar level for a long time, then it is not air.
As for whether it’s worth buying coins, that’s another matter, but “is it an empty shell” can basically be ruled out.
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6）My core conclusion about XPL
My current attitude towards Plasma/XPL is: cautiously bullish, but absolutely not mindlessly so.
Reasons to be bullish:
• It is positioned in the direction of stablecoin payments, which is “more like the main line,” and the on-chain stablecoin scale and TVL are not fake.
• Design with extremely low fees and aimed at payment experience indeed makes it easier to attract “non-speculative users.”
Reasons to be cautious:
• The unlocking rhythm is laid out here; this wave on February 25 is a “reality check.”
• A larger supply event in the second half of 2026 is still hanging like a sword over our heads.
• Low fee experience is an advantage, but it also means you must find other ways to capture value, otherwise it’s hard for the coin price to be strong in the long term (the market will be very realistic about this).
Finally, I’ll give you brothers an “executable” watchlist (not pretending to be a master, purely practical):
• Check DeFiLlama once a week: is the scale of stablecoins continuously dropping to an awkward range (for example, sliding from $1.8B to below $1B).
• Look at the transaction volume before and after unlocking: has there been a buying structure appearing where “it doesn’t drop but the volume increases.”
• If you are trading in waves: don’t go all in stubbornly before the unlock, wait to see if the market gives you a comfortable entry point after the unlock.
I’m actually a bit tired writing this, as the current market is average, and everyone’s emotions are tense. But I feel that writing about “utility projects” during such times is more meaningful: anyone can blow narratives in a bull market, but fewer people write risks clearly in a bear market.
DYOR, don’t take me as investment advice. I’m just writing down the data I observe while monitoring, giving you a clearer perspective.
