the technical and derivatives structure shows the possibility of forming a short squeeze potential, although the overall trend remains clearly bearish
This scenario is entirely conditional and not a confirmed expectation, as it depends on a sudden bullish push that surprises the accumulated short positions
The price is currently trading around 67,000–68,000 dollars (according to February 12, 2026 data), after a collapse from peaks above 126,000 dollars in 2025, making volatility high and risks elevated
⬆️ The first chart from CryptoQuant displays funding rates in perpetual futures contracts across major platforms. Funding has turned sharply negative (reaching -0.0087% or more at some points, with consistently negative values from late January to February)
This reflects significant dominance of short positions, where shorts pay longs to maintain their positions
In such an environment, if a strong upward move occurs (from solid spot demand, positive news, or initial liquidations), the probability of cascading short liquidations increases, generating short-term short squeeze pressure that rapidly pushes the price higher. However, the severely negative funding comes in the context of a clear bear market (per CryptoQuant, on-chain indicators "extremely bearish," with negative ETF flows and weak demand), so the downtrend may continue if sufficient support does not arrive, and short positions remain profitable
⬆️ The second chart shows the Bitcoin CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) chart, featuring a prominent CME gap around 84,000 dollars
These weekend-close gaps historically tend to act as a "price magnet" in futures markets
In the current context, after the sharp decline, 84,000 dollars is viewed as a potential attraction level. If a strong short squeeze is triggered, it could drive the price toward filling the gap at 84,000 dollars, and possibly extend to 90,000 dollars in an optimistic scenario, supported by cascading liquidations and transient institutional demand
Volatility is expected to rise noticeably toward the end of February 2026 due to the expiration of large options contracts (options expiry), where millions of dollars in open interest accumulate
These periods often cause sharp moves: pinning toward max pain levels, sudden spikes, further drops, or sideways oscillation.In short, this is a potential bullish scenario based on: sharply negative funding rates + accumulated shorts + attractive CME gap at 84k
However, it is conditional; failure of the upward push (due to macro pressures, continued negative ETF flows, or weak demand) could lead to continuation of the downtrend toward lower supports (such as 60,000–65,000 dollars per CryptoQuant warnings)
Therefore, position sizing, use of stop-losses, and avoidance of high leverage are critical in this environment. The market remains open to both directions, but this structure makes the short squeeze probability particularly noteworthy, especially with the end of the month approaching
#BTCMiningDifficultyDrop #BitcoinGoogleSearchesSurge #MarketCorrection
