The Most Dangerous Moment for BTC
Bitcoin has reached its most dangerous time, plummeting from $126,000 to $64,000, having lost half its value. The core reason is that Bitcoin has been backfired by leveraged faith, with the trigger point being the financial report from MicroStrategy, which is currently experiencing systemic blood loss.
In recent years, MicroStrategy, the biggest bull in Bitcoin, has taken on debt, issued stocks, and convertible bonds, transforming itself into a publicly traded leverage for Bitcoin. When Bitcoin was at $120,000, this model was almost godlike. But when the price has fallen below its cost line of $76,000, it has completely fallen from grace.
In the latest financial report, MicroStrategy recorded a quarterly loss of $12.4 billion. This is not an operational loss but because Bitcoin's market value has pierced through its balance sheet. The company holds over 700,000 Bitcoins, and its market value has now fallen below total cost for the first time. More critically, Saylor has publicly acknowledged the possibility of selling coins for the first time, and with such a large potential volume in hand, no one dares to take it on, as everyone fears being strangled in a death spiral.
Therefore, before any systemic structural changes, the supply-demand relationship can become imbalanced at any time, and everyone fears the risks of this possibility. So if Bitcoin is to rebound, the system must be reset.
- The first is that monetary policy must genuinely shift, and there must be expectations of significant liquidity injection. Historically, every major rebound in Bitcoin has been accompanied by a substantial increase in liquidity.
- The second is that regulation must be clear and defined, and legislation must be introduced; market structure and trading rules must be implemented.
- The third is that corporate holders must hold firm; if MicroStrategy is not forced to sell coins and does not trigger a chain liquidation, then this round of decline is merely an extreme deleveraging.
Last but not least, when Trump first took office, he was called the crypto president, and it is because of him that this asset class entered the world's top tier of assets. The midterm elections are set to begin in June, and unless he believes there are no votes in crypto assets, he could still win big; otherwise, lifting Bitcoin is a problem he must solve before the campaign.
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