Solana has entered a correction phase after failing to maintain its recent rebound. The token has been steadily declining since peaking around $88 on February 8. Since then, the price of Solana has dropped by about 10%, and selling pressure has increased over the past 24 hours.
This recent decline does not necessarily signify a complete trend reversal. However, technical analysis and on-chain data suggest that the current correction is forming due to weak market participation. As short-term traders enter, Solana is heavily relying on buyers around the $75 mark to prevent further declines. It remains questionable whether speculative funds, which frequently exit the market, can actually defend the major support levels.
Hidden bearish divergence · Exchange flow, causing adjustments.
The first warning appeared just a few trading days ago on the 12-hour chart.
Between February 6 and February 8, Solana formed a lower high around $88. In contrast, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recorded a higher high. The RSI measures momentum by tracking buying and selling strength. When the price makes a lower high and the RSI records a higher high, it indicates hidden bearish divergence. This pattern suggests that while the price may appear stable, internal momentum is weakening.
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Immediately after this divergence occurred, SOL transitioned into a downtrend.
The flow of inflows to exchanges has changed dramatically, increasing selling pressure. The exchange net position change indicator tracks whether coins are being deposited to or withdrawn from exchanges over the past 30 days. If the number is positive, it means more tokens are being deposited into exchanges to potentially sell.
On February 9, this indicator showed a net outflow of approximately -538,878 SOL, indicating buying pressure. On February 10, it reversed to a net inflow of about +245,691 SOL. This sharp reversal suggests an increase in selling pressure.
Due to this change, Solana has fallen more than 4% in one day and has shown additional bearish flow since February 8. Technical bearish signals and increased deposits to exchanges have accelerated the adjustments.
Short-term buyers are absorbing supply.
Deposits to exchanges are increasing, but not all market participants are selling. However, the group that has entered raises concerns.
According to HODL Waves data, the supply share of the holding tier of less than 1 day to 1 week is increasing. These wallets typically represent ultra-short-term traders who enter during rebounds and exit quickly. The HODL Waves indicator categorizes wallets based on holding periods.
From February 8 until now, the supply share of this tier has increased from about 5.39% to 6.81%. This indicates that speculative buying participation has significantly increased.
Historically, this group has struggled to provide support for long periods. For example, on January 27, when short-term holders occupied about 5.26% of the supply, SOL was trading at around $127. By January 30, their proportion had decreased to 4.31%, and the price dropped by about 8%. Similar movements are reappearing now.
This shows that current buying pressure is being led by traders who react reflexively.
At the same time, profit and loss data shows that immediate selling motivation is limited. The short-term holder net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) is still in the loss zone. NUPL measures whether one is in profit or loss by comparing the current price to the average purchase price.
On February 5, the short-term NUPL indicated a significant loss state of about -0.95. It improved to -0.69 during a rebound, but after a recent decline, it fell back to around -0.76. This suggests that many recent buyers are still at a loss, making them hesitant to sell immediately.
This suggests that short-term holders are currently delaying sales and are expected to provide key support. However, there is no guarantee that they will continue to hold if losses deepen.
Solana, $75 is a critical pivot point.
In a situation where speculative buying is dominant, the price structure of Solana (SOL) becomes very important.
The price of Solana has already lost support around $89. The next major support level is near $75. This range is a psychological price zone and a short-term buying cost range for recent buyers. It is also close to where bottom buyers started accumulating after the adjustment on February 6.
If SOL maintains above $75, short-term traders can defend their positions, allowing the price to establish a bottom. However, this support level is weak as it is not backed by strong long-term accumulation.
Clearly, if the 12-hour candles close below $75, there is a high likelihood of a new selling wave. Many recent buyers may see their losses deepen, increasing fear. If $75 breaks, short-term targets of $66 and $59 will open up.
Recovery is not easy in the upward direction. Solana must first recover $89 for upward momentum to resume.
Only above $106 does the overall structure begin to improve meaningfully.
