Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI) has now dropped into the low 0.2 range.
Historically, this level aligns more closely with early bear market phases (2018, 2022) rather than mid-cycle corrections.
In October, BCMI was holding around 0.5 — a neutral equilibrium zone.
Today, that structure has clearly broken down.
What changed?
The 0.5 mid-cycle equilibrium failed to hold
No strong rebound from 0.3
Direct continuation toward 0.2 without expansion reset
This behavior differs from past mid-cycle cooling phases.
Instead, it resembles a risk-off regime transition.
Historical Context
Previous cycle bottoms formed when BCMI reached:
~0.10–0.15 in 2019
~0.15 in 2022–2023
Current levels remain above historical capitulation zones.
This suggests that while the market may already be in a bearish structure,
full capitulation conditions have not yet appeared.
Structural Interpretation
BCMI aggregates valuation (MVRV), profitability (NUPL), spending behavior (SOPR), and sentiment.
A move into the low 0.2s reflects:
Shrinking unrealized profits
Increasing realized losses
Sentiment deterioration
Valuation compression underway
However, extreme panic territory (0.1 zone) has not yet been reached.
Conclusion
The data increasingly supports a bear market transition scenario, not a simple correction.
Unless BCMI stabilizes and reclaims 0.4–0.5,
the probability favors continued structural weakness.
From a cycle perspective,
true bottom conditions may still be ahead.
Written by 우민규 Woominkyu
