Last night before the non-farm payroll was released, the market was still fantasizing about 'June rate cuts being a certainty.' Once the data came out, many people's dreams of rate cuts were shattered in half. An increase of 130,000, while the expectation was only over 60,000, and the unemployment rate continued to drop. Simple translation: The economy is not as weak as you think, and the Federal Reserve is not as eager as you think.
Rate cut expectations have been pushed back, short-term bond yields are rising sharply, and the two-year yield has flipped. Traders have moved the first rate cut from June to July, and March has almost been sentenced to death. Whether Waller wants to cut rates is one thing; whether he can convince a bunch of hawks is another. Inflation has yet to be announced, and CPI hangs like a knife in suspense. Right now on Wall Street, they say 'two rate cuts this year,' but they are re-pricing for higher rates for a longer time.
The cryptocurrency market is certainly chaotic as well. $BTC has been tugging back and forth around 60,000, and 70,000 has become an emotional threshold that everyone is watching. If it can hold steady, the market will say, 'repair begins'; if it can't hold, it will continue to be seen as a rebound. The current issue is not whether the price is low, but the lack of consensus. Over in U.S. stocks, the Dow can still hit new highs, while in crypto, it is the familiar 'following the drop, not the rise.' This is not a coincidence; it is the prioritization of liquidity sorting itself out.
Ironically, the revised employment data for 2025 has been significantly downgraded; last year's performance was not that strong. In other words, while we see a strong January, we also find that the past year was overestimated. Strength and weakness coexist, which is the most uncomfortable part—when the sense of direction disappears, the market will start to scare itself.
But has the money really run out? Not necessarily. On-chain data shows that large holders are continuing to accumulate during the pullback, and DeFi's TVL is still gently climbing. Meme coins in the Solana ecosystem can still dance in the cold wind, $PIPPIN rising over twenty points in a day. What does this indicate? Money hasn't died; it's just become more selective. The overall market lacks direction, and small tokens rely on emotions to pave the way.
Traditional finance hasn't stopped either. Denmark's largest bank has begun offering Bitcoin trading services, indicating that compliance channels are slowly opening. Coinbase is embroiled in a lawsuit, and the pressure on exchanges remains, but the trend towards institutionalization hasn't receded. Trump continues to call for the lowest interest rates, while Wall Street nods along and calculates the numbers. The reality is that policies won't shift because of a single report, and liquidity won't flood just because of a single statement.
At this stage, what matters is not predicting rises and falls, but structural judgment. In the short term, macro factors dominate; no one should pretend to be a deity; in the medium term, watch the interest rate path, and only when true easing is confirmed will risk appetite overall warm up; in the long term, look at adoption rates to see to what extent traditional finance and on-chain systems have truly integrated.
It is precisely during this chaotic time that I prefer to focus on the underlying track. Emotional assets can double in a day or be halved in a day, but the settlement channels, stablecoin liquidity, and on-chain liquidation efficiency become increasingly important amidst the chaos. Networks like @Plasma that provide stablecoin settlement infrastructure and $XPL that carry the logic of Gas and liquidity channels will still be dragged along in the short term, but when banks begin to discuss stablecoin yields and the main account framework gradually loosens, this kind of infrastructure will be closer to real demand.
This round of market, to put it simply, is neither a bull turning back nor a bear returning, but liquidity testing faith. The tugging around 60,000 is essentially a chip turnover. If you only focus on the K-line, you will be shaken to the point of doubting life; if you look at the structure, you will know that this phase has always been prepared for those with patience.
In conclusion: The market is very noisy right now, but trends are never judged by noise. Don't get excited in the short term, watch the interest rates in the medium term, and look at the implementation in the long term. Survive, and then you will have the right to discuss the next round.
