$BTC Risk Index sitting at extremes again.
I’ve seen this movie a few times. When the model stays pinned high for too long, the market usually doesn’t drift sideways — it resets hard before the next stretch. In past cycles the real moves started after the index washed back toward zero, the zone where leverage feels clean again.
What we have now looks like two sharp legs down in a row, similar to that mid-2024 pattern that later turned into months of steady upside. Back-to-back stress often shows up near the end of a correction, not at the beginning of a collapse.
The trigger I’m watching is simple: a decisive reset of the index toward minimum risk. That’s when the board feels purged and new fuel can build. Until then it’s just noise and positioning.
Extreme readings don’t automatically mean panic. More often they mean preparation while nobody wants to look.
I’m not predicting a date, only watching the transition. Compression first, expansion later — that rhythm hasn’t changed.
