February is usually the part that grinds emotions the most. Not a violent collapse, just enough negativity stretched over time to make confidence leak out. For me it’s never the size of loss that hurts, it’s the fog that makes me question every decision.
March tends to soften the picture. $BTC often crawls out of the prior down slope, LTF shows small reclaim, HTF feels less heavy. Liquidity returns in thin layers, more sweeps on both sides than real commitment.
April and May usually bring optimism. Volume improves, targets like 180k–200k get mentioned everywhere, and I’ve been pulled into that mood before, thinking a new expansion had truly started.
June is where confidence peaks. When agreement gets too thick, risk quietly grows. July becomes the month of deleveraging, liquidations cleaning the table with no mercy. By August, if structure hasn’t held, the bear face shows itself clearly.
After watching a few rounds I learned one thing: by the time most people understand where they are in the cycle, half the road is already behind. Risk management always arrives after excitement, never with it.
