Financial markets do not move randomly.
And Bitcoin has followed a clear structural pattern since 2017.
Let’s set emotion aside and focus only on structure.
Cycle One (2017–2019)
Peak near $21,000
Decline of about 84%
Strong base formed around $3,000–$4,000
Followed by a major breakout
Cycle Two (2021–2022)
Peak at $69,000
Decline of about 77%
Base formed around $15,000–$17,000
Followed by recovery and the start of a new expansion
Now: A Possible Cycle Three
Peak near $126,000
Drop exceeding 70%
A potential demand zone forming between $45,000–$55,000
Do you see the pattern?
Near-vertical expansion
Sharp correction
Extended accumulation phase
Stronger upward wave
The percentages vary, but the structure remains similar.
The key question is not:
Will price fall further?
It is:
Is the long-term structure still intact?
In each cycle:
Fear was strongest near the bottom
Confidence was highest near the top
Experienced investors tend to observe structure rather than react to short-term price movements.
What may be different this time?
Greater institutional participation
A more mature market
Clearer correlation with global liquidity
Historically, Bitcoin has moved in psychological cycles before it moves in price cycles.
If the current structure continues to follow previous patterns, this phase may represent a consolidation period.
If the structure breaks, it would signal a different market environment entirely.
Markets rarely give loud signals.
They leave patterns for those willing to study them carefully.
