$BTC If BTC drops to 48K, here’s how I see ETH reacting — based on math, not emotions.
BTC topped around 126K and fell to 60K (-52%).
ETH topped near 4,950 and dropped to 1,750 (-65%).
ETH didn’t just follow BTC — it overreacted by roughly 1.25x, mainly due to leverage and panic. That first damage leg is already done.
Now assume BTC breaks 60K and grinds to 48K — another 20% down.
What ETH does next depends on where it’s trading when that happens.
Scenario 1: ETH at 2,300–2,400 first
Using the same 1.2x–1.3x volatility ratio:
20% BTC drop → 24–26% ETH drop.
2,400 → ~1,800
2,300 → ~1,700
That’s controlled fear, not collapse.
Scenario 2: ETH already weak at 1,900–2,000
Less buffer. Liquidations hit faster.
1,500–1,400 becomes likely — another leverage flush.
Scenario 3: Full panic (low probability)
If BTC loses 48K aggressively with macro pressure,
1,100–1,200 wicks are possible — fast and emotional.
Important: ETH already had its first panic leg at 1,750.
Second legs are usually slower and less violent.
My takeaway:
Below 1,500 needs BTC still falling.
Below 1,300 needs real panic — not Twitter fear.
Markets don’t reward confidence.
They reward risk management.
If BTC hits 48K, where does ETH find real buyers — 1,400, 1,200, or lower?
$BTC $ETH #CZAMAonBinanceSquare #USNFPBlowout #TrumpCanadaTariffsOverturned
