In the last few trading days before the Spring Festival, the A-shares are generally rising. Are you also struggling with whether to sell the stocks in your hand? Selling makes you afraid of missing out, while not selling makes you worry about a drop after the festival.
Data shows that in the past 20 years, the probability of A-shares rising in the 5 days before the Spring Festival is as high as 80%, and the same is true for the 20 days after the Spring Festival at 80%. Many people think this is coincidental, but there are actually patterns behind the Spring Festival red envelope market: looking at macroeconomics, monetary policy, and capital flow. Understanding these is more important than predicting whether 'this year will rise'.
The magnitude of the Spring Festival red envelope market is most closely related to the overall stock market, economic growth, and monetary policy throughout the year.
In 2019, the A-shares rose 13.43% in the 20 days after the Spring Festival, and rose 22.3% for the entire year, backed by monetary easing and economic recovery. From 2024 to 2025, the central bank will continue to lower reserve requirements and interest rates, with red envelope markets expected for two consecutive years. If there are consecutive declines before and after the Spring Festival, the stock market performance for the entire year is often poor. For example, in the 5 days before the Spring Festival in 2022, it fell 4.57%, and the entire year fell 15.13%.
According to this pattern, there is a high probability of a red envelope market in the Spring Festival of 2026. Economic growth, monetary easing, and optimistic sentiment all point in this direction.
The key question arises: should you hold stocks over the Spring Festival in 2026? This depends on your risk preference.
If you are a conservative investor who does not want to bear the risk of fluctuations after the festival and wants to respond flexibly, you can sell 30%-40% of your stocks before the Spring Festival and keep cash for the holiday. For the remaining stocks, allocate to high-dividend blue-chip stocks—banks, electricity, public utilities, or consumption stocks like liquor and home appliances.
After the Spring Festival, gradually invest the remaining cash in small-cap growth stocks. If they rise, it usually won't end in one or two days, but will have a longer growth span.
The benefit of this approach is that you can attack when the opportunity arises and retreat when necessary. If your judgment is correct, you can participate in the rise; if wrong, you still have cash for flexible adjustments.
If you are an aggressive investor who is optimistic about the slow bull market in 2026 and willing to bear short-term volatility, you can plan ahead for small-cap growth stocks or gold on the last trading day before the Spring Festival.$PAXG silver$XAG . Choose those companies you have long admired, which have recently declined but have good fundamentals, and hold them over the Spring Festival, patiently waiting for the possible rise after the holiday. If there is indeed a rising market after the festival, you will be able to benefit from the full extent of the rise.
The risk of this thinking is that if your judgment is incorrect, you may face greater volatility after the festival. But if your judgment is correct, the returns will be even greater.
Ultimately, whether to take money for the New Year or to hold stocks is not the most important thing; what matters is rationally analyzing the macroeconomy and monetary policy, judging the overall trend of A-shares, and then choosing strong growth industries and companies with good performance based on your own risk preference.
Remember, whether the Spring Festival red envelope market has fluctuations or not is not the key. The key is to use this window to reassess the macroeconomic situation, fundamentals, and liquidity to prepare for investment throughout the year. This is the greatest significance of analyzing the Spring Festival market.#黄金白银反弹
