#非农意外强劲

📈 The non-farm payrolls 'surprise' opens with a bang, and the crypto market's 'rate cut dream' is about to wake up?

The recently released January non-farm data has indeed doused the market with a bucket of cold water. The addition of 130,000 jobs far exceeded the expected 70,000, and the unemployment rate has surprisingly dropped to 4.3%.

Looking at these numbers alone, it seems the U.S. economy isn't yet at the point of needing to enter the 'intensive care unit'.

The multi-dimensional logic here is subtle:

The divergence is extremely severe: Although the overall numbers are good, they are largely supported by the healthcare and construction industries, while the government and financial sectors have been laying off workers. This indicates that the job market is not experiencing 'comprehensive prosperity', but rather a 'structural necessity'.

The Fed's stance: This report has directly driven the probability of a March rate cut to the floor. Since employment hasn't collapsed yet, the Federal Reserve is confident to maintain high interest rates (Higher for Longer) to combat inflation.

Impact on Crypto: The dollar index (DXY) has rebounded in the short term, directly suppressing BTC's rebound momentum. The market is currently in a 'good news is bad news' logic — if the economy is too strong, the liquidity gates will close even tighter.

The start of 2026 is tougher than expected, but it feels more like a 'delayed slowdown'.

The crypto market lacks macro reasons for new capital inflows in the short term and will likely continue to seek support amidst fluctuations. The key now is not employment, but next week’s CPI. If inflation also exceeds expectations, everyone really needs to prepare for a 'long winter'.

Personal analysis does not constitute investment advice; the market carries risks, and one must be cautious when entering the market.