Morgan Stanley forecasts the dollar could lose another 10% through the end of 2026, driven by resumed Fed rate cuts and ongoing fiscal uncertainty. The DXY is already at four-month lows around 96, down from 107 at its peak.
The standard playbook says dollar weakness = bullish for $BTC . Capital rotates into scarce, non-sovereign assets. That's the debasement trade.
But January told a different story. The dollar had its worst month since April. Gold hit $5,100. Silver jumped 19%. BTC declined. Grayscale noted that Bitcoin has a high downside capture ratio (strong returns when dollar falls) but low inverse correlation (timing is unpredictable). The disconnect came from regulatory setbacks and quantum computing concerns, not macro flows.
If a March cut triggers recession fears instead of optimism, crypto could sell off with equities — dollar weakness or not. Liquidity helps long-term. Sentiment drives short-term.
