The financial market in 2026 is witnessing a strange differentiation between two types of assets considered as "safe havens": Gold and Bitcoin. At the Digital Assets forum in London, Bradley Duke from Bitwise presented a sharp argument: Gold is a defensive asset, while Bitcoin is an offensive asset. That's the situation; understanding the role of each type of asset will help small retail investors build a solid financial fortress.
When "Digital Gold" and physical Gold move in opposite directions
In the past 6 months, while physical gold has continuously reached new highs with an increase of 46%, Bitcoin has dropped by up to 40% in value. This has severely challenged the belief that Bitcoin is the "digital gold". Duke explains that investors still have a "muscle memory" with gold as it has existed for thousands of years. Meanwhile, Bitcoin needs more time to establish trust equivalent to a type of "better new money". #Colecolen
The 4-year cycle and the impact of Halving: Is it still effective?
One of the hottest topics at the forum is the "death" of the 4-year cycle based on Halving. Experts believe that:
Supply has saturated: Most of the total 21 million Bitcoins have been mined, making the 50% reduction in block rewards no longer create the supply shock it used to.
The dominance of ETFs: Capital flows from ETF funds have completely overshadowed the new supply from miners.
Macroeconomic assets: Bitcoin is "growing up" and is directly influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than just revolving around internal blockchain events.
The "Offensive - Defensive" strategy for retail investors
Instead of trying to predict the peaks and troughs or timing based on cycles, Bitwise recommends a mixed portfolio. Gold acts as a "buffer" shielding you when the market faces instability (downside risk), while Bitcoin will be the spearhead helping to break through profits as the market enters a recovery phase (upside risk). $BTC
