JPMorgan dropped a report this week calling for crypto to rebound through 2026, driven by institutions — not retail, not corporate treasuries. This is notable timing. $BTC just hit $67k after losing a quarter of its value in a month. Fear & Greed is at 12.
The thesis is straightforward: the production cost floor reset to $77k following miner capitulation, deleveraging in CME futures has been contained compared to October's liquidation event, and regulatory clarity via the Clarity Act is expected to unlock institutional capital that's been waiting on the sidelines.
JPM aggregates flows across ETFs, CME futures positioning, VC funding, and corporate treasury buys. 2025 saw $130 billion in inflows, mostly retail-led via spot ETFs and treasury accumulation. They're projecting 2026 exceeds that — but this time led by pension funds, endowments, and hedge funds.
Long-term $BTC target: $266k, based on volatility-adjusted parity with gold. Short-term: ugly consolidation, structural reset.
