🔹 General Context: A risk-averse market, fear and greed index at 11 (Extreme Fear).
🔹 Overall Market: A decline in the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies by -3.1%, Bitcoin dominance at 56%, and alternatives including ETH are more affected.
🔹 Investor Behavior: Any rebound is often exploited to reduce positions rather than to build long-term positions.
Technical Analysis
🔹 Current price: $1,935.59, below all daily averages (EMA 20/50/200) → Clear downward trend.
🔹 Daily RSI: 28.25 → Oversold but not yet at complete capitulation.
🔹 Daily MACD: Negative with continued selling pressure.
🔹 Bollinger Bands: Price is close to the lower limit, with room to drop towards $1,700–$1,650 before reaching a real panic zone.
🔹 Daily Pivot: $1,900–$2,000 → The key area that buyers will try to defend.
H1 hourly timeframe
🔹 Price $1,934.19 → Bearish but showing signs of slowing down.
🔹 H1 RSI: 25.52 → Clear weakness zones.
🔹 MACD H1: -26.06 → Slowing of selling pressure, ready for short-term accumulation.
🔹 H1 Pivot: $1,928–$1,938 → Small balance area, break below $1,928 → Potential drop, rise above $1,944 → Test $1,960–$1,980.
15-minute timeframe
🔹 Price $1,933.98 → Accumulation phase after the drop.
🔹 RSI 15m: 28.49 → Short-term rebound opportunity.
🔹 MACD 15m: Histogram +0.68 → Decline in immediate selling pressure.
🔹 15m Pivot: $1,936–$1,938 → Very narrow range, any quick break → Drop towards $1,920–$1,910, rebound above $1,940 → Test $1,950–$1,960.
Scenarios
🔹 Bullish (rebound towards $2,000):
Defending the zone $1,900–$1,880.
Closing H1 above $1,940.
Breakout of EMA 20 H1 and the Bollinger towards $1,988–$2,000.
🔹 Bearish (extension towards $1,850 and below):
Loss of the $1,900 area with H1 and H4 closing below it.
Price continues below the daily Pivot $1,966.
RSI weak without bullish signals.
Potential targets: $1,880–$1,850, and in case of additional pressure: $1,800–$1,750.
🔹 Summary of the process for traders:
The market is in a state of extreme fear → Potential technical rebounds around $1,900–$1,950.
Risk management is essential → Position size and stop-loss limits may determine the difference between a winning and losing trade.
Traders with the trend: It is best to wait for clear corrections and not enter out of emotional impulses.
