Solana has entered a consolidation phase after failing to maintain its recent rebound. The coin reached a peak near 88 USD on February 8, before continuously weakening since then. The price of Solana has decreased by almost 10%, and selling pressure has increased over the past 24 hours.

Although this decline does not yet indicate a reversal of the overall trend, both technical data and blockchain data suggest that the current pullback is due to a weak market inflow and outflow. With short-term traders intervening, Solana must rely on buyers around 75 USD to avoid deeper losses. The question is whether speculative funds, which often move quickly, can protect this critical support.

The Hidden Bearish Divergence and cash flow in the exchange market are factors pulling the market down

The first warning signs appeared on the 12-hour chart just a few sessions prior.

Between February 6 and 8, Solana created lower highs near the 88 USD level while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made higher highs. RSI is a momentum indicator that tracks buying and selling pressure. When prices create lower highs but RSI makes higher highs, it indicates hidden bearish divergence, suggesting weakening momentum beneath the surface even though prices seem stable.

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Shortly after this divergence occurred, SOL began to weaken.

Selling pressure intensifies when the cash flow into the market changes suddenly, with Exchange Net Position Change tracking whether coins are moving in and out of exchanges within 30 days. A positive value indicates more coins being deposited for sale.

On February 9, this indicator showed a net outflow of approximately −538,878 SOL, indicating buying pressure. However, on February 10, the figure turned into a net inflow of approximately +245,691 SOL. This rapid reversal reflects increased selling activity.

This change explains why Solana has dropped more than 4% over the past few days and continues to weaken after February 8, as the weakness of technical factors and increased coin deposits into exchanges have accelerated a rapid correction.

Short-term buyers are absorbing the supply.

Although cash inflows to exchanges have increased, not all market players have sold out. However, the incoming group is causing concern.

HODL Waves data shows that the group of coin holders within 1 day to 1 week has increased their holding proportions, with these wallets representing short-term traders who often buy during market pullbacks and sell quickly. The HODL Waves indicator separates wallets by holding period.

From February 8 to the present, the proportion of this group has increased from about 5.39% to 6.81%, marking a rapid increase in speculators.

Historically, this group has faced difficulties in sustaining price support. For example, on January 27, short-term holders held about 5.26% of the total when SOL traded near USD 127, but by January 30, their share dropped to 4.31% after selling off, and the price fell by about 8%. This behavior is re-emerging.

This data reveals that buying during this price pullback has been led by short-term speculative investors.

Meanwhile, profit and loss data reveal that the motivation to sell immediately is still relatively limited, with the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) of short-term holders still in the capitulation zone. The NUPL indicator compares the current price with the average purchase price to gauge whether holders are in profit or loss.

On February 5, the short-term NUPL was around −0.95, indicating heavy losses, then improved to −0.69 during the market recovery, before dropping to about −0.76 after the latest price decline. This data indicates that many new buyers are still trapped in losses and may delay selling immediately.

All of this explains why short-term holders are still choosing to hold coins and are seen as supporting the price. However, this does not imply that this group will protect or hold coins if losses deepen.

The price level of Solana pointing at 75 USD is a decisive point.

When speculative buying pressure dominates the market, the price structure of SOL becomes a key issue.

The price of Solana has already lost resistance near USD 89 while the major support is close to USD 75. This zone is both a psychological level and the area where the short-term cost for recent buyers is located, also not far from where buyers might start accumulating after the pullback on February 6.

If SOL can hold above USD 75, short-term traders may continue to protect their individual positions, keeping prices moving within a narrow range. However, this support is still weak because there is no strong long-term accumulation backing it.

If a 12-hour candle clearly breaks the USD 75 level, it may trigger a new wave of selling. Many recent buyers may continue to face heavy losses, increasing the risk of panic. If USD 75 cannot hold, the short-term downward targets will be around USD 66 and USD 59.

Meanwhile, the bullish side is still facing difficulties, as Solana must regain above USD 89 to restore momentum.

But a truly improved structure will only be visible if it can break above USD 106.