Solana has entered a corrective phase after failing to maintain its recent rise. The token nearly reached 88 USD on February 8, but then fell back. Since then, the Solana price has dropped nearly 10%, and selling pressure has increased over the past 24 hours.
The decline does not mean that the trend has completely reversed, but technical analysis and blockchain data show that the correction is occurring due to weak market interest. Short-term traders have entered, so Solana now needs buyers near 75 USD to avoid larger losses. The question is whether the speculative capital, which often quickly leaves the market, can really defend the important support level.
Hidden bearish divergence and exchange flows triggered the pullback
The first warning came on the 12-hour chart a few trading periods ago.
Between February 6 and 8, Solana formed a lower high near 88 USD while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher high. RSI measures momentum by following buying and selling strength. If the price makes lower highs while RSI makes higher highs, it signals a hidden negative divergence. This means that momentum weakens beneath the surface even if the price looks stable.
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Shortly thereafter, Solana's price began to pull back.
The selling pressure increased when flows to and from exchanges changed dramatically. Exchange Net Position Change shows if coins are moved to or from exchanges over 30 days. When it becomes positive, it means that more tokens are being deposited, and can be sold.
On February 9, this figure showed net outflows of about −538 878 SOL, indicating buying pressure. On February 10, it turned to net inflows of about +245 691 SOL. The quick reversal shows that selling activity increased.
This is how you see why Solana fell more than 4 % in the last day and continued to weaken after February 8. Technical weaknesses and more exchange deposits caused the decline to accelerate.
Short-term buyers are buying up the supply
Despite increased deposits on exchanges, not everyone is selling. But the group trading now worries many.
HODL Waves data shows that the group holding Solana between one day to one week increases its share of the supply. These wallets belong to very short-term traders who often buy on dips and sell quickly. HODL Waves differentiates wallets based on holding time.
Between February 8 and now, this group increased its share from about 5.39 % to 6.81 %. It is a significant increase in speculative trading.
Historically, this group has struggled to provide stable support. For example, on January 27, short-term holders had about 5.26 % of the supply when Solana traded near 127 USD. On January 30, their share decreased to 4.31 % after selling, and the price dropped about 8 %. The same pattern is seen again now.
This shows that the current buying on dips is led by reactive traders.
At the same time, Profit and Loss data shows there is little motivation to sell directly. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for short-term holders is still in the capitulation zone. NUPL compares the current price with the average purchase price to see if holders are in profit or loss.
On February 5, the short-term NUPL was near −0.95, indicating significant losses. During the recovery, it improved to −0.69 but fell again to about −0.76 after the latest decline. This means that many new buyers are still at a loss and hesitate to sell directly.
This explains why short-term holders are keeping their tokens right now and why they are used as crucial support. But it doesn’t mean they will defend the price if losses increase.
Solana's price levels point to 75 USD as a crucial boundary
As speculative buying dominates, SOL's price structure becomes especially important.
Solana has already lost support around 89 USD. The next important support is around 75 USD. This area is psychologically important and could be a short-term price range for new buyers. It is also close to where buyers started buying after the correction on February 6.
If SOL stays above 75 USD, short-term traders may continue to defend their positions, which could keep the price stable. But this support is weak, as strong long-term accumulation is lacking.
If a clear 12-hour candle closes below 75 USD, it could lead to new selling. Many new buyers would then be at a loss, which could create panic. If 75 USD does not hold, new targets open downwards near 66 USD and 59 USD in the short term.
The recovery is difficult upward. Solana must first reclaim 89 USD to regain strength.
Improvement is clearly visible only if the price rises above 106 USD.
