Solana has entered a correction phase after failing to maintain its latest recovery. The token's price rose to nearly $88 on February 8 before it began to steadily decline. Since then, Solana's price has dropped nearly 10%, and selling pressure has increased over the last 24 hours.
This invoice, however, does not yet indicate a complete change in direction, but both technical and blockchain-based data suggest that the current correction is characterized by weak market participation. Short-term traders are now stepping in, and Solana is heavily relying on buyers at the $75 level to prevent deeper losses. The question is, can speculative capital — which often exits quickly — actually defend the key support level?
Hidden bearish divergence and net flows to exchanges triggered the downturn.
The first warning appeared on the 12-hour chart just a few trading periods ago.
On February 6-8, Solana formed a lower high near $88, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher high. RSI measures sentiment by tracking buying and selling pressure. When the price makes lower highs but RSI makes higher highs, it indicates a hidden bearish divergence. This pattern signals weakening sentiment beneath the surface, even if prices appear stable.
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Soon after this divergence formed, SOL began to retrace downward.
Selling pressure increased as net flows to exchanges changed suddenly. The Net Position Change metric tracks whether coins are moving into or out of exchanges over 30 days. When the metric is positive, it means more tokens are being deposited for potential sale.
On February 9, the metric showed net outflows of about -538,878 SOL, indicating buying power. On February 10, the trend reversed, and the net flow was about +245,691 SOL. This sudden turn indicated an increase in selling.
This change explains why Solana's price fell over 4% in the last 24 hours and continued to weaken after February 8. Technical weakness and rising deposits into exchanges together accelerated the corrective move.
Short-term buyers are absorbing the supply.
Although investments into exchanges are increasing, not all market participants are selling. Still, the emerging group raises concerns.
HODL Waves data shows that the share of holders between one day and one week has increased. These wallets represent very short-term traders who typically step in during dips and exit quickly. The HODL Waves metric divides wallets based on holding time.
Between February 8 and now, the group's share rose from about 5.39% to 6.81%. Thus, the increase in speculative participation is significant.
Historically, this group has not succeeded in providing long-term support. For example, on January 27, short-term holders accounted for about 5.26% of the supply when SOL was near $127. On January 30, the share dropped to 4.31% after the sell-off, and the price fell by about 8%. Now, similar behavior is visible again.
This indicates that the current buying in the dip is led by reactive traders.
At the same time, profit and loss data shows that there is not a strong incentive to sell immediately. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for short-term holders remains in the selling zone. NUPL compares the current price to the average purchase price and measures whether holders are in profit or loss.
On February 5, the short-term NUPL was near -0.95, reflecting significant losses. During the recovery, it improved to -0.69, but fell back to around -0.76 after the latest drop. This indicates that many of the new buyers are still in the red and are unlikely to sell immediately.
This describes why short-term holders are holding on now and why they are relied upon as a crucial support. However, it does not mean they will support the price if losses deepen.
Solana's price levels indicate $75 as a crucial boundary.
With speculative buying prevailing, the price structure of SOL is now in a critical position.
Solana's price has already lost the nearest resistance level around $89. The next significant support level is found around $75. This area represents a psychological boundary and potentially a short-term cost level for those who have recently bought. The area is also close to those levels where dip buyers may have begun to accumulate positions after the correction on February 6.
If SOL stays above $75, short-term traders may continue to defend their positions, keeping the price in a consolidation phase. However, support is weak as it is not backed by strong long-term accumulation.
A clear 12-hour candle closing below $75 would likely trigger a new wave of selling. Many who bought recently would be driven deeper into losses, increasing the risk of panic. If $75 fails, the next short-term downside targets are around $66 and $59.
The upward retracement remains challenging. Solana must first return above $89 for sentiment to recover.
Only by surpassing the $106 level would the overall situation start to genuinely improve.
